Philip Webster, Times political editor, says that today's leaked memo setting out Tony Blair's plans for a farewell tour before he quits No 10 appears to be real, but shows a lack of political realism

"The leaked memo appears to be genuine, and I think if it wasn't it would have been exposed as a spoof by now, as the news has been running since early this morning - although details like appearances on Songs of Praise do appear almost ridiculous.

"The idea that Tony Blair could suddenly do all of these things - well, politics isn't like that. Clearly there are people in Downing Street who are hoping against hope that somehow they can recreate the glory days one more time for Blair before he takes his leave.

"They want to give him a day when the sun is shining, the sky is blue, and everyone in the country has forgotten the Iraq war - a phantasmagorical window where it can be like it was in 1997, when things could only get better, so that Blair can leave people wanting more.

"I think it is true that they have been looking for an opportunity. Blair would certainly like to go at a moment when people aren't calling for his departure. That is why it has always been felt that Blair would say more to reassure people about his departure.

"The time for him to do that was during his interview with The Times at Chequers last week. I gave him countless opportunities to expand on what he meant by giving ample time for his successor to take over the reins. And he did try to reassure people, repeating that he would not go on and on and on. But he refused to go beyond that.

"And by his refusal to go further in spelling out his timetable, he has made it all much harder for himself.

"So now David Miliband has done it for him, by coming out this morning on the Today programme and as good as saying that Blair will go in 12 months.

"This carries weight coming from Miliband, who was for many years the head of the Downing Street policy unit and is now Blair's closest political ally in the Cabinet. He was saying that reasonable people probably want Blair to do that little bit more to reassure them. He was saying for Blair what Blair hasn't said himself, that he will go in 12 months.

"We have also seen claims this morning - not for the first time - that letters are circulating among backbench MPs calling on Blair to set a date, but we have heard these rumours before. I am fairly sceptical about what the point of the letters would be at this moment.

"I think it is far more likely that Blair will have to say more, and is now being forced into a situation where he will have to go beyond what he said to The Times last week, to keep people happy. At the same time it won't change anything - I think he was always planning to go next year, he just didn't want to say so straight out.

"There is a saying that all political careers end in failure. That is what the people who wrote this memo are trying to avoid, but even Tony Blair's career may end in sad disappointment."

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