Philip Webster, Political Editor of The Times, says that many in Westminster expect Tony Blair to leave office before next year's Scottish elections even though he has not given a precise timetable in his statement today:

"Has there been a deal? No. Downing Street has made that clear - except perhaps for Tony Blair agreeing to go a bit further than he did in his Times interview last week.

"And I think that the Parliamentary Labour Party, the broad mass of the PLP, has accepted Tony Blair's statement. They are now saying, 'Let's give him space, let's all draw breath and get back to being the Government.'

"They do not have an exact timetable but they do have absolute certainty that he is going next year and there is a widespread feeling that he may go earlier than the local elections.

"It feels like he's got it under control for now and I guess it gets him through the conference season. He can stand up there and they won't be calling for him to go.

"So it's given them all a breather. If the polls continue to be bad for the Government, if they're heading for a wipeout in the Scottish and Welsh elections, then he may go earlier.

"Mr Blair said that he will decide what will happen in the interest of the country and the party, but I don't think there's much chance of anything happening soon.

"If Labour tried to mount a coup now, that would leave them looking absolutely mad. I thought the most memorable part of his speech this afternoon was when he apologised to the public for the Labour Party - and that was aimed at a lot of people, I imagine.

"The pressure could start mounting again at Christmas and we could still see a leadership election in the New Year. Some hardline Brownites are saying that he should have gone now, but that's always been their view. The overwhelming view is that this is enough.

"Gordon Brown has made a statesmanlike intervention, saying that he will support him whatever he does and that this can't be a stitch-up. Privately, I imagine, he's be hoping that Blair will go before the local elections next May."

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