THE Queen’s Speech tomorrow will be an odd mixture of the past and the future. The legislative programme for the coming session, and Tony Blair’s speech opening the Commons debate, will be the tenth and last of his premiership. But that does not mean that the proposals are irrelevant, or will be dropped should Gordon Brown take over as prime minister next year.

For long-serving governments, Queen’s Speeches, like Budgets, are further instalments of well-established programmes. Virtually all of the two dozen Bills were agreed by the Cabinet months ago. The main exception is the climate-change Bill. This was outlined a fortnight ago, but many key details have yet to be agreed.

Otherwise, the programme reflects departmental priorities rather than Mr Blair’s personal wish list. As usual, there will be a glib umbrella slogan, possibly “security and opportunity”, as opposed, presumably, to “insecurity and exclusion”. There will be Bills on criminal justice and organised crime (yet again), road pricing, banning rogue salesmen and estate agents, the Probation Service, the future of state pensions, making the Office for National Statistics statutorily independent, and strengthening the powers of the Mayor of London.

In political terms, it is all intended to counter claims that Mr Blair is a lame duck and show that he is as active as ever. That is reflected also in the policy reviews that he launched recently and outlined in a joint presentation with Mr Brown to ministers last week. Mr Blair also wants to go to the EU summit in mid-June, which is due to debate the future direction of Europe.

That may be Mr Blair’s wish, but his freedom of manoeuvre has narrowed and his authority is draining away. So there is bound to be an element of the valedictory about his speech. If you look back on what he said nine-and-a-half years ago, the change in tone is striking. Then, Mr Blair was full of the optimism of a fresh start. Many of the proposals, on Bank of England independence and constitutional reform, have been implemented. Yet much of what has happened since 1997 was not mentioned: the sharp rise in public spending, the main policy changes on health and schools, let alone the focus on terrorism and Iraq.

Mr Blair’s speech tomorrow will be his first, and probably last, full-scale confrontation with David Cameron in a Commons debate. It will be the old master versus the young pretender, no doubt diverting, but not the real battle. For all Mr Blair’s desire to leave his mark, it is all a phoney war until Mr Brown takes over.

The Queen’s Speech is of interest as part of the Government’s continuing programme, as opposed to the Blair legacy. For the future, the more important pointer will be Mr Brown’s Pre-Budget Report in three weeks’ time.

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