Voters want reform | Cash offers to pay back £15k | Morley to resign as MP | Matthew Parris | Blog: the end for Brown?

The expenses scandal has had a devastating impact on Labour and Gordon Brown, a Populus poll for The Times finds today.

Labour’s overall position has slid to 21 per cent, its lowest in polling history. When asked how they would vote in next week’s European election, those polled have put Labour in third place behind UKIP and the Tories, for the first time.

All the minority parties, including the Greens and the British National Party, have made striking advances in the past three weeks as the row over MPs’ allowances has engulfed all the main parties.

Surprisingly the Liberal Democrats have been hit almost as badly as Labour in both the general election and European voting standings.

But it is Labour and Mr Brown who appear to have taken the biggest hit over the expenses scandal, with 62 per cent of those polled citing the Prime Minister as the most damaged, compared with 5 per cent citing David Cameron. Only 14 per cent believe that Labour is likely to win outright at the next general election, compared with 51 per cent for the Conservatives.

Yesterday Elliot Morley became the most high profile Labour casualty when he announced that he would stand down as the Labour MP for Scunthorpe at the next election. The former Environment Minister could face a criminal investigation after claiming £16,000 in mortgage interest — 18 months after the mortgage was paid off.

He said that he made his decision with regret and blamed his expenses on sloppy accounting. He said: “The last two weeks have been traumatic for me and I have to think of my family and health, both of which have suffered. I have never tried to duck responsibility for my mistake and have repaid the amount in full. I understand people’s anger over the whole issue of MPs’ expenses.”

Bill Cash, the veteran Conservative Eurosceptic, said that if told to by the party, he was prepared to pay back more than £15,000 claimed for the rent of a London flat owned by his daughter. This came after Mr Cameron warned that Mr Cash faced “serious questions”.

The overall general election standings put the Conservatives on 41 per cent, up two percentage points since the Populus poll this month, Labour on 21 per cent – down five points – and the Liberal Democrats on 15 per cent, down seven points. But a different picture emerges when people were asked how they will vote on Thursday.

The Conservatives drop four points to 30 per cent, compared with the poll three weeks ago. Labour drops nine points to 16 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats fall eight points to 12 per cent. UKIP are the beneficiaries, rising 13 points to 19 per cent, ahead of Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Greens rise to 10 per cent, and the BNP is up three points at 5 per cent. A change in methodology for today’s poll could account in part for the higher figures for the smaller parties. They were included in the main “prompt list” for respondents. In the earlier poll they were included only in the prompt list for those who said that they would vote for “another party.”

The poll is particularly bad news for Mr Brown because the expenses row has hit all the main parties equally, with some of the most prominent casualties being Tories, but the Prime Minister and Labour appear to being blamed by the voters.

If the election has an outcome anything like the poll suggests, questions will inevitably be raised over Mr Brown’s leadership. Up until now Cabinet ministers have been wary of mounting any challenge to Mr Brown. Such a move was being discussed after poor election results last summer but petered out swiftly. Although there is no sign that any minister is willing to take up the gauntlet at this stage, senior MPs believe that any resignations from the cabinet would be fatal to Mr Brown.

He is already planning the strike back, including a reshuffle, immediately after the European elections. Tomorrow he will try to reassert his authority with a BBC interview in which he will set out the action he has already taken on expenses and his plans.

Asked which party had been worst affected, 35 per cent said Labour, 7 per cent Conservative and 1 per cent Liberal Democrat. However, 50 per cent said that all parties had been equally damaged.

Asked which of the leaders had been most damaged, 62 per cent said Mr Brown, 5 per cent Mr Cameron, 1 per cent Nick Clegg, and 25 per cent said they had been equally damaged. Even half of Labour supporters think that Mr Brown is most badly damaged; and of those planning to switch from Labour to Conservative 85 per cent think he is the main casualty.

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