Philip Webster, Political Editor
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Radical changes to the political system are overwhelmingly backed by voters after an expenses scandal that has damaged all parties but particularly Labour and Gordon Brown, the Populus poll for The Times suggests today.
The voters not only want to punish the main parties, they also demand change. In the eyes of the public, almost anything is preferable to the current discredited system.
Populus put to respondents a series of proposed reforms to the system and the public went for virtually all of them. Eighty-two per cent believe that a system of “recalling” MPs between elections to put themselves forward for re-election if they have broken the rules would improve things.
Seventy-seven per cent say that there should be more referendums to give voters a direct say on important issues; 74 per cent back fixed-term parliaments, taking away from the prime minister of the day the right to choose the election date; 73 per cent say there should be more free votes.
Sixty-six per cent believe that the number of MPs should be reduced to cut the cost to the taxpayer; 56 per cent say MPs should be stopped from having second jobs; and 51 per cent back a fully elected House of Lords.
A finding that 56 per cent support a change from the “first past the post” system to proportional representation is one of the few pieces of good news in the poll for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. Their ratings have dropped sharply, too, in the three weeks since the disclosures began.
In advance of next week’s European elections, all mainstream parties are giving ground to a substantial advance by the UK Independence Party — which has not been free of expenses controversy in the past — the Greens and, to a lesser extent, the British National Party.
For Gordon Brown and Labour the findings could not be much grimmer. According to the poll, they are heading for the kind of mauling that can only lead to another bout of speculation about Mr Brown’s leadership.
Soundings taken by The Times this week suggest that no senior ministers want to cause a crisis at the top of the party, either by challenging Mr Brown or by resigning.
But figures suggesting a national Labour standing of 21 per cent, dropping to 16 per cent for the European poll, and another finding that 62 per cent think that Mr Brown is the leader most damaged by the coverage of expenses abuses, may cause some of them to think about it, whether in the end they act or not.
It continues to look unlikely. But the scandal seems to have made Labour supporters the most angry. The likelihood of Labour supporters voting is markedly lower than that of Conservative supporters, the poll suggests. Perhaps surprisingly, the Liberal Democrats appear to have been hit almost as badly as Labour, dropping seven points in three weeks in the main voting intentions and eight points in the European election part of the survey. The Lib-Dems in particular appear to be suffering from the rise of the minority parties.
UKIP’s advance is striking, having moved up 13 points to 19 per cent in under a month. Some of the surge may be because in today’s poll — unlike that of three weeks ago — people were given the names of the smaller parties in the main “prompt list”. Even so, the party’s progress will be a worry to David Cameron and the other leaders.
Even in the main voting intentions poll, UKIP stands at 8 per cent. It looks on course for a good result next week. A third of its support came from people who voted Conservative at the last election, another chunk from people who said that they had not voted at all and a third equally from those who voted Labour or Liberal Democrat in 2005. Nearly half of BNP support comes from people who did not vote in 2005.
Although regional factors could have an unexpected impact, today’s poll would mean that Britain’s contingent in Strasbourg would look like this: Conservative 28 (+4); Labour 12 (-6); UKIP 15 (+3); Lib-Dem 8 (-2); Green 4 (+2); SNP 1 (-1); Plaid Cymru 1.
The poll finds that 51 per cent expect an outright Conservative victory — 14 per cent think there will be a landslide and 37 per cent a victory short of a landslide. Five per cent say there will be a Labour landslide and 9 per cent a Labour victory short of a landslide.
Mr Brown, braced for poor results, is already understood to be planning a Cabinet reshuffle and a determined attempt to focus the country back on the economy by setting out how Labour will defeat the recession.
But today’s poll could hardly be worse for him. Labour’s average support in polls this month is 24 per cent, down from 28 per cent in April and 31 per cent in March. The Conservative average is 41 per cent, down from 43 per cent in April.
Only 45 per cent say they would be certain to vote in a general election, the lowest proportion since the last election — yet another indication that the expenses controversy is turning people away from politics.
Only 39 per cent of those who voted Labour in 2005 say they would do so again if there was an election now. Today’s is the eighth published poll since the expenses row started. In that time Labour’s support has averaged 23.5 per cent, the Conservatives 40 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 18 per cent.
(Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,001 adults aged 18-plus by telephone on May 27 and 28. 2009.Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.)
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