Comment Central: What does it all really mean?

Gordon Brown is planning promotions for Blairite modernising ministers if he goes ahead with his plan to replace Alistair Darling as Chancellor with his close ally Ed Balls.

As the Prime Minister struggled yesterday to prevent his reshuffle plans unravelling days before the event, his scope appeared suddenly wider than expected with the certainty of change at the Home Office, the prospect of a move at the Treasury and the outside chance of one at the Foreign Office.

The last time that a prime minister made such an overhaul was in 1989, when Margaret Thatcher made John Major Chancellor, Douglas Hurd Foreign Secretary and David Waddington Home Secretary.

The unplanned confirmation that Jacqui Smith is standing down as Home Secretary has left one of the big offices of state up for grabs. But the weakness of Mr Brown’s authority has been shown by the reluctance of several ministers to be part of his plans. Yesterday Mr Miliband again suggested that he would like to spend four more years at the Foreign Office.

One ally said that the US Administration would think it “ridiculous” of Mr Brown to move his Foreign Secretary without good reason ten months before a general election.

Mr Miliband had been tipped as a possible replacement for Ms Smith but his open defiance further complicates Mr Brown’s calculations. Mr Darling has also let it be known privately that he would resist a move to the Home Office. The Times has learnt that Alan Johnson is keen to stay at health.

John Hutton, another possible candidate to replace Ms Smith, is enjoying his stay at the Ministry of Defence and aides point out that a change could be unduly disruptive given the military operations in Afghanistan. Mr Brown may now consider John Denham, Shaun Woodward or even Hazel Blears for the post. Ms Blears, a former police minister, may now hang on in the Cabinet despite Mr Brown calling her behaviour over capital gains tax “totally unacceptable”.

Other Cabinet ministers also made their positions clear. Hilary Benn’s friends say that he wants to stay in the Government, countering suggestions that he could be dropped.

Ed Miliband is said to be keen to stay at the Department of Energy and Climate Change, and Geoff Hoon is hoping to stay as Transport Secretary, despite recent expenses disclosures.

There has been some private criticism of Mr Brown’s intention to put Mr Balls into the job that he almost gave him in 2007. Some say that Mr Balls is too divisive a figure to be moved to such a key role. Most Labour MPs, however, believe that he is the best qualified minister.

Lord Mandelson, who is closely involved in the reshuffle, has been working closely with Mr Balls in recent weeks and would be unlikely to oppose his promotion. But he would tell Mr Brown to balance the appointment with promotions for the likes of James Purnell, whom many believe would replace Mr Balls as Schools Secretary, Mr Denham, John Hutton and Mr Johnson.

Senior Labour figures say that the mood in the party is the worst they have known, as activists’ anger is directed at MPs over the expenses scandal. One source said that Monday’s private meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party was “out of control as backbenchers laid into Mr Brown’s strategic drift”.

Last night there was no sign of any plot to remove Mr Brown, with many Labour MPs apparently convinced that a change of leadership would require an early general election. Mr Johnson remains the favourite to emerge in the unlikely event of Mr Brown standing down.

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