Philip Webster, Political Editor of The Times, says John Reid has clearly become the most likely challenger to Gordon Brown once Tony Blair leaves office:

"I've just been looking at John Reid's odds at the bookmakers. Two months ago he was 20-1 - now he's 7-2 second favourite. Back then Gordon Brown was 8-1 ON to be Labour leader, now he's 11-4 ON, so there has been a considerable change in the odds.

"Those odds probably overstate it, but they do accurately reflect the fact that Reid is a likelier candidate than he was. He's been very careful since the leadership crisis began to stay out of it.

"This week in Manchester he had not said a word, except to look back at Tony Blair's decision to announce his departure before the last election and say that now looks unwise. He has not joined in the plotting, has refused to get involved in the speculation, and has benefited from that.

"He has also had a very good summer. He was in charge when the plot to blow up transatlantic airlines were disclosed and was generally felt to have done very well.

"Today, apart from making a powerful speech on his own area - the Home Office, security, terrorism - he allowed himself to range freely over other areas: health, education, he even gave his view on President Bush. It was not just the speech of a Home Secretary, it was clearly the speech of someone who is taking themselves seriously.

"I think that John Reid will now, along with Alan Johnson, just wait and watch and see how the polls develop before deciding whether to stand.

"Gordon Brown is undoubtedly still the favourite, but others are closer than they were and if something disastrous were to happen to Mr Brown they might make a move. Mr Brown ends the week much as he began it - his cause has not been set back but nor has he advanced himself.

"John Reid is regarded as a bit of a tough nut, not afraid to tell people what he thinks of them, and he does have some enemies in the party. He took a wonderful swipe at Roy Hattersley today.

"Hattersley had said that he would shoot himself if John Reid became leader and Reid said that was the only good reason he'd been given for standing. He's tough and he's not afraid to make enemies, but people can forgive that if they think he's a winner. The message today from his speech was that he is thinking very seriously of mounting a challenge."

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