Norwich is a wounded, angry city. Its football team has been relegated, the nearby coastline is in peril and one of the city’s two much loved veteran MPs has been humiliated over his expenses and has quit Parliament.

Now the responsibility of representing this proud East Anglian bastion looks likely to fall, unexpectedly, to a 27-year-old management consultant.

Until last month Chloe Smith had been gently honing her political ambitions by standing as a Tory candidate in a long-shot Labour seat — 163 on the target list — and planning her next sponsored cycle ride. That was before the downfall of her Labour rival in Norwich North, Ian Gibson. In three weeks a by-election may send her to Westminster, not only as Parliament’s youngest MP but also as the first of a new breed untainted by the expenses scandal.

But first she must win over a constituency whose fury has focused not on Dr Gibson’s cut-price sale of a London flat to his daughter but on Labour’s “silly and vindictive” decision consequently to ban him from standing at the next general election — which provoked his resignation.

Dr Gibson’s independence from Government drew many local followers. “I put people and sound judgment first, before political ambition,” he tells constituents on his website.

But in the month since Ms Smith was thrust into the spotlight, she has shown that she has learnt the language of the loyal machine politician, promising voters a “fresh” voice advocating “clean politics”. She has already forsworn her right to food and furniture on the taxpayer and promised to allow auditors to crawl over her claims. “People finally have a great opportunity to vote for change,” she said when the by-election date was announced. “I urge people to send a message to Gordon Brown about our economy and about cleaning up politics by voting for me.”

Already Ms Smith, who finished her English degree at York in 2004, is being tipped for greater things. “With Chloe, you’ll have something of a high flyer — someone who, in a year’s time, in a Conservative government, is going to have some clout here,” a well-connected supporter said.

Outside the Asda supermarket where Dr Gibson once held his surgeries, this has not gone down well. “She’s condescending and sounds a bit pompous. She’s got a lot of living to do. I don’t think I will vote for anyone,” said Gladys Lake, 79. Raymond Briggs, 70, a former Gibson supporter, said he hadn’t made up his mind, but said that Ms Smith was “a bit young”.

The Labour Party faces an even harder task. It has chosen an unlikely candidate: Chris Ostrowski, 28, a manager for John Lewis and the party’s seventh-choice candidate in the Eastern region in the European elections. The campaign had a slow start, with the candidate spending two days this week in London working, and a local spokesman saying that Bob Blizzard, the Labour whip and Suffolk MP running the campaign, had not appeared in the office until yesterday.

By contrast the Tories are deploying the same “vast” team used to secure the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, where the party achieved a swing from Labour to Conservative of 17.6 per cent. It includes campaigners such as Stephen Gilbert, from Lord Ashcroft’s Target Seats team. According to one Labour source, the Labour Party’s only hope is to campaign on its record of local investment and appeal to Gordon Brown to stay away from the constituency.

“If the party tries to make it a contest over Mr 10 Per Cent [the Labour advertisement accusing David Cameron of planning 10 per cent cuts] it’ll be a disaster.”

The Liberal Democrats are pinning their hopes on a charismatic candidate, April Pond, although they admit they did not perform well in last month’s local elections.

The biggest unknowns are the Greens, who were virtually tied with Labour in a poll of the constituency ten days ago. Their candidate, Rupert Read, an academic at the University of East Anglia, is campaigning to limit vast housing developments. He recognises that they are unlikely to beat the Conservatives. “The interesting question is who is on the up and whether we will come second,” he said.

2005 general election result Conservative 15,638 (33.2%); Labour 21,097 (44.9%); Lib Dem 7,616 (16.2%); Green 1,252 (2.7%); UKIP 1,122 (2.4%); Other 308 (0.7%). Majority 5,459 (11.6%).

The Conservatives need a 5.8% swing from Labour, although an increase in the Green vote could lower this figure

Results for Norwich North wards in June 2009 county elections Conservative 10,656 (40.1%); Labour 4,953 (18.6%); Lib Dem 4,371 (16.5%); Green 4,251 (16.0%); UKIP — standing in only four seats — 2,106 (7.9%); BNP 228 (0.9%)

Constituency Total 2001 population 83,507:male 48.8%; female 51.2%; under-18s 20.4%; over-60s 24%; born outside UK 3.5%; white 98.3%; black 0.2%; Asian 0.5%; Christian 69.2%; full-time students 2.2%; graduates under 75 12.4%; no qualifications, 16-74, 33.1%; owner-occupiers 69.2%; social housing tenants 21.4%

Source: Eastern Daily Press, UK Polling report

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