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It is also a story of Labour Party hubris and control-freakery which caused the people in the Welsh Valleys constituency of Blaenau Gwent to reject the party for the first time in 87 years in last year’s election.
It even reveals glimpses of the way Gordon Brown is busy wooing the Labour heartlands and the long-neglected party faithful to bring them onside ahead of the transition of power. It might be a cynical strategy deployed in areas that never truly fell for Tony Blair in the first place — but the signs are that it is working.
In less than a fortnight Labour will be forced to fight two by-elections, one for Westminster and a second for the Welsh Assembly, in the small, post-industrial Valleys towns that make up Blaenau Gwent. The Westminster campaign is of huge symbolic importance, while Labour is one seat away from an overall majority in the Welsh Assembly.
The by-elections follow the death in April of Peter Law, who defeated Labour’s Maggie Jones, a trade unionist and friend of Mrs Blair, at the last election with a 50 per cent swing. Mr Law, formerly a longstanding Labour activist, overturned the party’s 20,000 majority last year by standing as an independent over the imposition of an all-women shortlist on the constituency. Months later Ms Jones was elevated to the House of Lords.
Under normal circumstances, Labour would expect to recapture a seat formerly held by Aneurin Bevan and Michael Foot easily. But two people are hoping to stand in its way: Mr Law’s widow, Trish, who is standing for the Assembly, and his agent, Dai Davies, who is contesting the Westminster seat.
Mrs Law decided to stand after appearing on a regional news programme after her husband’s death. “Not that I’m for one minute thinking that I could ever be the politician that Peter was, but I do know that you should not be afraid to stand up and be counted for what you believe in,” she said.
At first sight the omens are not good for Labour. Months after losing the seat, the party enraged local activists by expelling 20 members for disloyalty. Then, a week after Mr Law’s death, came a bombshell from his widow. She claimed that Peter Hain, the Wales and Northern Ireland Secretary, had offered her husband a peerage not to stand against the Labour candidate.
Mr Hain has called this a “straight lie”, and Scotland Yard has said that it will not be examining the claim as part of the cash-for-peerages investigation. Mrs Law is adamant. “I will stand by this to the day I die,” she said. “I did laugh about it — Lady Trisha — and I know my brothers and sisters would have been laughing all the way to bed.”
Both sides are even engaged in a slanging match over the delicate subject of Mr Law’s funeral. Mrs Law said that she asked Rhodri Morgan, the Welsh Labour leader, to stay away from her husband’s funeral last month, calling his presence a “publicity stunt”. But she was unable to prevent him from attending because it was in a public place.
One Labour activist alleged that the Laws used the funeral to galvanise support for a campaign. Alyson Tippings, a councillor, said: “They were wearing really low cut dresses —wedding outfits really —but in black and red.”
Against this background Labour’s candidate for the Westminster seat looks like a dangerous choice. Owen Smith, 36, has been a spin doctor (for Paul Murphy, the former Wales Secretary) and a drugs company lobbyist (for Pfizer pharmaceuticals, the makers of Viagra). His opponents point out that he has been living in Surrey and nickname him “Oily Smith”. Despite this, he is proving a formidable campaigner. He is the very model of contrition, fiercely bright, charming and willing, in his fight to recapture the seat, to accept that Labour has made mistakes.
All-women shortlists — which produced Maggie Jones — were an error. “In this electorate, there’s no question it was a bad idea,” he said. “It was rejected, it was a mistake and we apologise for it.” Other mistakes, he said, included the Iraq war, which he said he would have voted against, and the education White Paper released last autumn.
A recent poll for NOP suggested that Mr Smith was comfortably ahead of Mr Davies, with a 12-point lead. But Labour dares leave nothing to chance. It is pouring resources into the constituency, opening four offices and bringing activists from outside Wales to help. On Wednesday there was even a visit from the Chancellor — not an option for the Prime Minister, who was told by Welsh MPs a week earlier that he was an electoral liability. Mr Brown travelled to Blaenau Gwent on Wednesday to claim it as his own.
Labour faces greater difficulty over the race for the Welsh Assembly, with John Hopkins, its candidate, trailing Mrs Law by three points, according to the latest poll.
The political prize in Cardiff for Labour, which has 29 of the 60 seats, leaving it one short of overall control, is the greater of the two. But on the streets of the constituency voters grumble about Mr Hopkins. They say he has already had nine years in charge of the local council yet the place remains one of the most socially deprived in Europe, beset by problems of anti-social behaviour and crime.
And Mrs Law’s campaign is unusual by any standards. She will readily admit her inexperience in political matters and refuses to talk about how she might vote if she gets to the Assembly.
Asked about her political background, she said: “I’m not going to go down that at this point in time. I will vote with my heart for what is right for the people.”
This appears to put her on a collision course with her running mate, Mr Davies, a former trade unionist with very definite views, standing against Mr Smith for Westminster on a hard-left ticket.
He said: “We feel that new Labour has lost its socialist roots. Mr Blair has taken for granted the bedrock of socialism and the socialist areas that supported the party through all the Thatcher era, through all the lean times.” However, he is realistic about his chances of replicating Mr Law’s personal standing in the area.
THE CANDIDATES
Westminster seat:
Married with three children. Worked as a BBC producer on politics programmes. Was special adviser to Paul Murphy when Wales and Northern Ireland Secretary. Head of government relations for Pfizer
Married with son aged 9. Worked for Corus Steel in Ebbw Vale until closure. Rose up union ranks to become shop steward. Became Peter Law’s agent and Commons researcher
Welsh Assembly seat:
Leader of council for nine years. Former teacher. Has lived in Brynmawr for more than 40 years. Married with two daughters
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