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Instead of using the Bromley and Chislehurst by-election to showcase his brand of “liberal conservatism”, the Tory leader has found himself shut out by a wealthy local party determined to show its independence.
The decision by Bob Neill, the Conservative candidate, to keep his seat in the London Assembly if he wins has proved a gift to his opponents, particularly the Liberal Democrats, who would otherwise struggle in such a Tory stronghold. Mr Neill, a part-time barrister and outgoing director of a health authority, has been nicknamed “Three Jobs Bob” in voluminous amounts of Lib Dem literature.
The local Conservative Association also allowed itself to be drawn into a spat with the UK Independence Party, which is contesting the by-election, and threatened the UKIP with an injunction over several giant billboard posters. No injunction followed but the row generated publicity for their rival.
Mr Cameron made an early campaign visit, yet barely features in by-election literature produced by the local party in southeast London. The previous MP, Eric Forth, who died last month of cancer, was a vigorously independent rightwinger and the local party seems intent on continuing the tradition.
One Tory newsletter revelled in the refusal to accept a candidate from Mr Cameron’s A-list of high-flyers. It carries a mock letter to the editor saying: “I was delighted to see the local Conservatives have picked Bob rather than someone from ‘central casting’.”
Another dense two-page letter to electors from Mr Neill, which again makes no mention of Mr Cameron, calls the by-election “a chance to send a message to Tony Blair that we are fed up with higher taxes”, despite the Tory leader’s decision to put economic stability before tax cuts.
A small by-election team of national Tory officials is helping with the campaign, but its messages are set locally.
Mr Neill told The Times that there was no deliberate attempt to ignore Mr Cameron. He said: “We have just played to what we think are our strong cards. The Conservative council got a thumping result a month ago. The sensible thing is to build on that momentum.”
But Lib Dems in Bromley, whose candidate is Ben Abbotts, a local councillor, privately declared themselves astonished at their opponent’s tactics. In previous by-elections Lib Dem leaflets have used unflattering pictures of past Tory leaders but there is none of Mr Cameron in Bromley, a testament to the appeal of his liberal conservative message.
The parties are also contending with the rival attraction of the World Cup. Canvassers are under strict instructions not to knock on doors during England matches, and the main parties’ literature is peppered with references to football.
The final days of campaigning have intensified after the UKIP, whose MEP Nigel Farage is standing, threatened to challenge the result if Mr Neill won, saying that his directorship of a health authority might make him ineligible to be a candidate.
A Tory spokesman dismissed the argument, saying: “By the time Bob would be looking to take his oath he would not be a member of this body.”
If elected, Mr Neill plans to serve out his remaining 22 months representing Bexley and Bromley in the London Assembly, where he is Tory group leader, which is within the rules. He told The Times he was following the precedent of Andrew Pelling, an MP elected last year who has remained an assembly member, and said he wished to avoid the £250,000 cost of another by-election.
THE CANDIDATES
Ben Abbotts Liberal Democrats
Anne Belsey Money Reform Party
John Cartwright Official Raving Looney Party
Nigel Farage UK Independence Party
Ann Garrett Green Party Nicholas Hadziannis Independent
John Hemming-Clarke Independent
Robert Neill Conservative
Rachel Reeves Labour
Steven Uncles English Democrats
Paul Winnett National Front

Sam Coates's blog about Westminster, politics and spin
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