Almost half of voters think that anyone would do a better job than Gordon Brown as Labour leader.

Nine months at most from a general election, a Populus poll for The Times suggests that 48 per cent of voters believe that “literally anyone” from Labour’s ranks could do better, without naming alternatives. Only a third say that Mr Brown is the best leader available to Labour.

The stark conclusion, coming as Mr Brown prepares to address the TUC today in one of his most important speeches, confirms that he has a mountain to climb to win a fourth term for Labour next spring. While there is no evidence of any renewed attempt to remove the Prime Minister, 61 per cent see him as a liability to Labour compared with 34 per cent who consider him an asset.

The latest poll, conducted over the weekend, puts Labour on 27 per cent, up 1 point on mid-July. The Conservatives are up 3 points at 41 per cent and the Liberal Democrats down 2 points at 18 per cent.

No party has ever recovered from being so far behind in the polls at this stage of a Parliament to win the subsequent general election. Comparisons with previous elections all show that the governing party was in a stronger position than Labour is now and still lost badly — even though the opposition party usually lost support in the final months before the election.

The Tories are, however, doing less well than Labour in opposition in 1996 (on 50 per cent) or the Tories in 1978 (48 per cent).

Opinion has hardened among voters that David Cameron will win an overall Commons majority, now expected by 57 per cent, up 6 points on mid-July. The number thinking that there will be a hung Parliament has fallen by 5 points to 20 per cent. Some 17 per cent (up 2 points) think that Labour will win an overall majority.

The sole comfort for Mr Brown is the lack of agreement on a successor. While nearly two thirds (65 per cent) believe that others would make a better leader than Mr Brown, only 17 per cent can suggest other Labour politicians. When asked to name someone, without names being prompted, 43 per cent say that they don’t know.

Of those who do cite alternatives, 13 per cent name David Miliband, 7 per cent say Harriet Harman, and 6 per cent name Jack Straw or Alan Johnson. Among Labour voters, Mr Miliband is equal first with Ms Harman on 12 per cent, followed by Mr Straw on 11 per cent and Lord Mandelson on 10 per cent.

In spite of the apparently desperate position, the Cabinet was reported to have been in a determined mood yesterday as it agreed on a new campaign that will warn voters the Conservatives would “wreck the recovery”.

Mr Brown will use the word “cuts” in his speech today, recognising that his refusal to do so until now has begun to cloud what he regards as a positive argument for Labour policy. It is thought he will say Labour’s determination to protect frontline services could mean cuts in less vital services.

George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, will promise today to cut the deficit faster than Labour.

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