1. Tony Blair’s candidacy for President dies. David Miliband gets the consolation prize and becomes High Representative

The scenario that dare not speak its name in Downing Street, at the moment, but David Miliband’s chances of ditching domestic politics and heading to Europe took a major step closer as EU leaders sat down to dinner last night.

The Foreign Secretary has emerged as one of six possible candidates to become Europe’s foreign secretary-in-chief on a shortlist being drawn up by the socialist group of EU members. This is a major endorsement, particularly as several of the alternatives look less than impressive.

When Mr Miliband was asked during a press conference if he was available, Gordon Brown jumped in and replied that he was not. But surely the option must seem attractive to a politician facing perhaps a decade in opposition during the prime of his political life, with only the prospect of an awkward coversation with his brother Ed over standing for the Labour leadership to look forward to.

For his part, Miliband is a committed Europhile, understands the direction the union is heading in and has the potential to be an effective negotiator without being showy.

And while Gordon Brown may secretly not weep for his predecessor, the fact another Blairite gets a decent job will stem any grumbling from his former accolytes.

2. The comeback kid returns and Blair gets the job of President

It is never easy being the frontrunner, and British diplomats may have been sent out last night to talk down Blair’s chances of getting the job in an effort to depress expectations. Having written off his chances in the media, Blair becomes a credible candidate once more. France and Germany defy expectations and don’t oppose Blair’s candidacy. The price of support, however, is that Blair accepts in advance that his role will be limited and his hands tied, so as not to eclipse national leaders. But once he’s in the job, Blair finds the spotlight unavoidable and becomes the biggest figure in Europe.

3. Europe exercises “le revenge” and downgrades Britain’s status inside the EU

For some Europeans, the payback can’t come soon enough. In some capitals, Britain has not been forgiven for Margaret Thatcher’s renegotiating of the rebate, Blair’s failure to take Britain into the euro and for not opting into the Schengen “open borders” policy. So for those — such as Elmor Brock, a German MEP — this is the perfect opportunity to remind Britain that it can’t be at the top table if it doesn’t share the burden. Under this scenario, none of the plum jobs go to Brits and Britain loses out when positions in the European Commission are handed out next month.

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