The Tories are defending 57 councils, Labour 47, the Lib Dems 12, and independents one, but 59 are under no overall control. The first results will come from the big industrial cities, where there may be limited shifts in and out of no overall control.

The main battleground of London will come later in the night and Labour is likely to lose several councils, some to no overall control. The Tories are hoping to gain several suburban councils, such as Bexley, Croydon and Merton. In Labour’s nightmare year of 1968, the Tories won a huge 1,438 seats, but the Liberals gained just 10. Now, however, the Lib Dems already hold 309 in London, against 653 for the Tories and 866 for Labour.

Watch out also for small parties and independents. Despite well-publicised fights in Barking and some northern towns, the British National Party is putting up just 363 candidates nationwide, against 319 for the UK Independence Party, 162 for George Galloway’s Respect (notably in Tower Hamlets) and 1,251 Greens. The Greens are a factor in Oxford, as are independents in such Labour strongholds as Barnsley and Wigan.

Overall, it looks likely to be a very bad night for Labour, but just how bad, and who will benefit, will not be clear until early on Friday morning at the earliest.