Despite pushing Tony Blair into third place, with 27 per cent of the vote compared with Labour’s 26 per cent, by last night the Lib Dems had made net gains of only one council and a few councillors.

The results were a blow to Sir Menzies Campbell. The election was seen as the first test of the party’s electoral appeal after two months of his leadership, and some commentators were predicting gains of 100 seats.After his run of poor performances at Prime Minister’s Questions in the Commons, some Lib Dems may now reflect on whether the party made the right choice in March by backing him as “a safe pair of hands”.

David Cameron will see the Lib Dems’ failure to make significant advances as a vindication of his decision to campaign in the local elections on green issues, traditionally Lib Dem territory.

The Conservatives pointed out with satisfaction that they made net gains of 39 seats in straight Tory-Lib Dem contests. These included seizing control in Winchester — where gay sex revelations about the Lib Dem MP Mark Oaten may have had an impact — and 14 gains in Sutton, southwest London, although the Lib Dems clung to power there.

Three factors appear to have hampered the Lib Dems. In the North, the party was unable to better its strong performances against Labour when the same metropolitan boroughs last held elections in 2004. That may have been its high watermark.

This may affect Sir Menzies’s general election strategy, which was assumed to be based on seeking gains from Labour in the North.

In several northern industrial cities Labour began a modest fightback against the Lib Dems, winning back four seats in Manchester to stay in control and three seats in Liverpool, although the Lib Dems remained firmly in power.

Supporters of Sir Menzies took comfort from the failure of the Tories to gain any councillors in Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle upon Tyne, although there were small Conservative gains in Bury, Sunderland, Warrington, Wigan and Rochdale.

In London the Lib Dems fought the election from a lower base, allowing them to make more spectacular advances. They gained 16 seats in Brent and 12 in Camden, toppling Labour from control in both, and 11 in Haringey, although Labour clung to power.

The third factor was incumbency, explaining some apparently contradictory trends. Islington slipped to no overall control as the Lib Dems lost 12 seats to Labour, despite their gains in neighbouring Camden.

In Richmond upon Thames the Conservatives suffered sixteen losses and the Lib Dems dramatically regained control, even though the party lost five seats to the Tories in the next- door borough of Kingston upon Thames.

The loss of outright control in Islington, previously a flagship council where the Lib Dems will now rely on the mayor’s casting vote to stay in power, was a particular blow and came after their failure by a narrow margin to win the parliamentary seat of Islington South last year.

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