THE political shocks of the past fortnight have shifted public opinion sharply away from Tony Blair and Labour towards David Cameron and the Tories.

But is this any more than a short-lived, and possibly reversible, response to an exceptional period of Labour turmoil — the aftershocks of a political earthquake? Or does it represent a fundamental turning point in the fortunes of the main parties, as happened after the Black Wednesday expulsion of sterling from the European Monetary System? The latest Populus poll, undertaken between Friday and Sunday, after the reshuffle, shows a drop in Labour support since early April of six points to 30 per cent, equal to its lowest rating since 1992.

The Tories are up four points at 38 per cent, reversing a drift in their rating since January. The gap between the two parties is now the largest since 1992, apart from one poll. The swing from Labour to Tory has been highest among men and skilled manual workers.

The latter group is also where the British National Party has gained from 1 per cent to 3 per cent, at the expense of Labour. The Liberal Democrats are down one point at 20 per cent.

There has been a sharp fall since last month in the number wanting Mr Blair to stay on as Prime Minister beyond the end of this year, from 42 to 31 per cent. Some 50 per cent want him to go either now or by the end of this year, a three-point rise. But “don’t knows” have more than doubled to 19 per cent, indicating increased uncertainty about his future.

Friday’s Cabinet reshuffle has been poorly received. Only two fifths (42 per cent) think it will get Labour back on track, while nearly three quarters (72 per cent) say that the changes are just an attempt to distract attention from the Government’s difficulties. More than half (54 per cent) think the “biggest problem” now is Mr Blair himself. And nearly two thirds (65 per cent) say that “the way things are going, Labour will lose the next election”.

Mr Cameron himself is also doing well. His personal rating as a leader (on a 0 to 10 point scale) is slightly down on his post-election peak in January, at 5.11, against 5.28. But not only is this higher than any score achieved by his two predecessors, but it is also the first time that the Tory leader has had the highest rating. This is primarily because Mr Blair’s rating has fallen sharply since January from 5.33 to 4.72, his lowest to date.

Looking ahead to the next general election, the Tories under Mr Cameron are on 41 per cent (as in December), against 31 per cent for Labour under Gordon Brown, down from 35 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats under Sir Menzies Campbell are on 18 per cent (down from 20 per cent five months ago under Charles Kennedy).

All this is bad for Labour, but not necessarily terminal. Its voters remain pretty loyal to Mr Blair. There has been no change since last month in the 28 per cent thinking he should go this year, though there has been a 12-point shift to don’t knows among those believing he should stay beyond December, now down to 52 per cent.

While his rating among Labour voters has dropped from 7.55 to 6.92 since January, this is still higher than the ratings given to other party leaders by their own supporters, with Mr Cameron on 6.49.

This shift in opinion does not yet look as decisive as that that happened in autumn 1992. Some, but not all, of this month’s declines may be reversed. A revealing recent indicator has been a question asking both about satisfaction and choice of government.

While since 2003 at least three fifths of voters have been disappointed in the Government, a half or more have still preferred Labour to the Tories in office. This has, however, started to shift: 71 per cent are disappointed in Labour, up from 61 per cent in January. But 50 per cent still prefer Labour to the Tories, down from 59 per cent.

The Tories have now moved from being unelectable to potentially electable, though power is still some way away. As Mr Blair implied yesterday, the onus is now on Labour — and its fractious MPs — to demonstrate that the party still wants to govern. At stake is a Labour fourth term.

After Thursday’s elections, this morning’s poll is a further stark warning of how continued Labour disunity and infighting can only benefit the Conservatives.

LOOKING AHEAD

The “forward agenda” set out yesterday included:

Today speech by Ruth Kelly on the need for strong neighbourhoods;

Tomorrow public debate on environmental and financial constraints on growth of travel

Next few weeks completion of the final parliamentary stages of the Education Bill

End of May publication of long-term framework for pensions

Before the summer publication of the findings of No 10’s spending review

End of summer completion of a DTi review of energy policy

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