TONY BLAIR hates to talk about his legacy. But that is what is at stake in his visits this week to Iraq and, tomorrow and Friday, to Washington. He is still devoting a large amount of time to Iraq: not surprisingly, since, as his advisers accept, his reputation is joined at the hip to success there.

The US trip, originally set for before Easter, was delayed until the formation of the new Iraqi Government. Mr Blair had wanted to meet the new Iraqi Prime Minister before reviewing this and other problems (Iran, Israel and Hamas, the G8 summit in St Petersburg etc) with President Bush. Mr Blair still has hopes for completing the Doha world trade talks, where President Lula da Silva of Brazil is seen as the key.

Mr Blair will make the third of his planned major speeches on foreign policy in Georgetown on Friday. This strategy has three interlinked elements: first, combating extremists, as in Iraq; secondly, addressing the causes of conflict and linking military/intelligence operations with so-called soft initiatives on Africa, drugs, democracy building and climate change. The third strand is interdependence with big countries working with reformed international institutions, which have legitimacy, but not always efficiency or effectiveness. Hence the need for a larger United Nations Security Council that is willing to be more responsive and bolder, as in Darfur. He will also discuss an increased surveillance role for the International Monetary Fund, as set out by Gordon Brown (so no “split” stories).

Iraq fits into this picture in several ways. Mr Blair argues that there is now unquestionably a proper elected government, with full Sunni participation, albeit still with gaps in key ministries. Therefore, now is the time for increased international support by the EU (already in the pipeline) and by the UN, which has held back since the assassination of its chief representative in August 2003. For many observers, any positive remarks are seen as absurd given the continuing high level of violence. Mr Blair is, however, correct to believe that abandoning the Iraqi Government now would make matters much, much worse.

Mr Blair left Baghdad impressed by the determination of Nouri al-Maliki, the new Iraqi Prime Minister, and leading Sunnis to tackle the militias. On security, the focus is naturally on the withdrawal of US and British troops. Mr Blair is sticking to the conditions based approach: that is linking withdrawals on a phased basis to both the quantity of Iraqi troops and police (325,000 by the end of the year) and their training, equipment and capability to operate on their own.

Although there are not calls to leave now, the Iraqis do want a sense of timing and phasing. Discussing what has been called an “objective timetable” will be central to the Blair-Bush talks. Britain faces serious difficulties in Basra, where conditions have deteriorated, partly thanks to Shia divisions. Mr Blair believes that he has persuaded the Baghdad Government to accept that violence around Basra is their problem as much as a British problem.

Iraq is not seen as a “blip or a wart” in Mr Blair’s “values-based” foreign policy, but the opposite. If Iraq starts to go right, it will boost confidence in the broader strategy. And, of course, the reverse if Iraq goes wrong.

HIS US AGENDA

World trade talks: end the stalemate by getting Brazil and India involved

Times Recommends

• Swine flu vaccine for all as drug rushed through
• Artificial sperm and the race to build a baby
• BBC jets out stars to tout for prizes