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David Cameron is in the doldrums. After sailing ahead of Labour for most of the year, he is now becalmed, and the lack of further progress has unsettled some of his MPs and supporters.
It is not only that the Tories’ rating has slipped from the plateau it had been on since June. Many voters remain sceptical about how far he has changed his party. The latest Populus poll for The Times (see www.populuslimited.com) asked about various pledges that Mr Cameron made on the day he was elected leader a year ago. In each case, a clear majority believe that he has not made real progress towards achieving the pledges.
More than half, 56 per cent, of all voters, including 52 per cent of Tories, believe that Mr Cameron has not made real progress towards “changing the scandalous under-representation of women in the Conservative Party”.
Similarly, 66 per cent of the public, including 58 per cent of Tories, believe that he has not put a stop to “the Punch and Judy politics of Westminster: the name-calling, backbiting, point-scoring and finger-pointing”.
Moreover, just over half the public, 51 per cent, think that he has not made progress in making “the Conservative Party a voice for hope, for optimism and for change”, although 72 per cent of Tories believe that he has. Similarly, 51 per cent of all voters believe that Mr Cameron has not made progress in building a modern, compassionate Conservative Party, but 65 per cent of Tories believe that he has.
The public, including Tories, are being unfair to Mr Cameron over candidates. Despite the clumsiness and fuss over the “A list”, 38 per cent of the candidates selected in the past year have been women. As Mr Cameron noted yesterday, however, progress was still disappointing on picking black and minority candidates (only three so far).
More generally, the poll shows how the party has improved its image. There has been some slippage in the past three months, and a Labour recovery after the leadership turmoil of early September. But on a 15-month comparison, it is striking how the Tories have improved on having a good team of leaders (up from 22 to 39 per cent); on being a united party (up from 28 to 46 per cent); and on being competent and capable (up from 36 to 43 per cent). They have made no progress on understanding the way people live their lives; caring about ordinary people’s problems; sharing people’s values; and being honest and principled.
There are some pluses: the Tories are still ahead of Labour and a Cameron-led party would comfortably beat a Gordon Brown-led Labour Party. Mr Cameron has not suffered a serious setback and Labour does not yet know how to handle him. Forget his comment about being ready for a snap election called by Mr Brown. That is still a long shot. The Tories need to give voters a clearer idea of what they stand for, “steadily building up the picture” in the coming months, as Mr Cameron said yesterday. That is about direction, not detailed policy.
Being Leader of the Opposition is a miserable job, as Tony Blair always said. You cannot do much, except endure the frustrations of your supporters. Mr Cameron has to be patient and persistent.

Sam Coates's blog about Westminster, politics and spin
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