THE Liberal Democrats are vulnerable to a Conservative revival under David Cameron. This has created an acute, and so far unresolved, strategic dilemma, whoever is Lib Dem leader. Like all centre parties, the Lib Dems’ fortunes largely depend on the standing of the other main parties. For the past decade, the Lib Dems — under Paddy Ashdown and, since 1999, Charles Kennedy — have benefited from Tory and Labour troubles. This created room for manoeuvre that Mr Kennedy exploited to boost the party’s MPs to 62, the highest for 82 years, with some very promising new, younger MPs.

But many Lib Dems believe that they missed an opportunity last May to achieve a significant breakthrough, as Edward Fieldhouse and David Cutts argue in their chapter in Britain Decides — the UK General Election 2005, edited by Andrew Geddes and Jonathan Tonge.

These favourable circumstances may now be over. Even in May, the Lib Dems gave up ground to the Tories, losing five seats and gaining three. The arrival of Mr Cameron threatens even bigger losses. The Tories are the main challengers to the Lib Dems in twice as many seats as Labour: 43 to 18. Moreover, the Lib Dems would lose 17 seats to the Tories on a swing, or switch in votes, of up to 10 per cent. By contrast, the Lib Dems would lose 12 MPs on a swing to Labour of up to 10 per cent.

This is a familiar pattern. The Lib Dems have tended to lose votes and seats whenever there is a Tory revival or victory. The old Liberal Party lost half of its 12 MPs in 1970, and, in 1979, two of its 13 MPs on a much reduced share of the vote. A big difference now is that the party’s base is broader, thanks to winning more Labour-held seats and coming second in many more. But that is only a partial protection.

The Iraq factors and tuition fees helped the Lib Dems to win several university seats from Labour in May. But these could be recaptured by Labour under Gordon Brown if he can rally 2005 defectors. Lib Dem support has held up well so far at 19 per cent, according to the latest Populus poll for The Times. The main switch so far has been from Labour to the Tories, but an increase in support for Mr Cameron’s party would be sufficient to gain some Lib Dem seats. More serious are signs of an erosion in the party’s image.

The new poll shows a big drop since September, from 74 to 52 per cent, in the number believing that the party has a strong team of leaders, and from 71 to 53 per cent in the number saying that it is united. Some of that must reflect the recent semi-public grumbling about Mr Kennedy.

A deliberate shift either to Right or Left (a choice denied by many Lib Dems) would risk losing votes and seats. In that respect, Mr Kennedy is right to try to carve a distinctive path, such as the emphasis on civil liberties. The real question is about effectiveness rather than intentions: about the absence of a sharp cutting edge and sense of direction.

Mr Kennedy is good during campaigns, less good between them. He and his party now have to decide whether he still has the hunger, energy and commitment to lead his party in face of these new challenges. Mr Kennedy has talked of the Lib Dems raising their game. He also has to do so, by a long way, if he is to survive.

LEADERSHIP CONTENDERS

SIR MENZIES CAMPBELL, 64

Strengths: Reassuring figure, with gravitas of distinguished barrister, safe pair of hands. Seen by some Lib Dems as the perfect antidote to David Cameron

Weaknesses: Cautious; would be 67 at a spring 2009 election; a little too grand for some anti-Establishment Lib Dem activists?

SIMON HUGHES, 54

Strengths: Energetic campaigner, well known, with carefully nurtured powerbase among Lib Dem rank and file; the man to beat

Weaknesses: Populist instincts can mean inconsistency; little obvious support among MPs; reputation as disorganised; disappointed as candidate for mayor of London

MARK OATEN, 41

Strengths: Youthful appeal, high profile as home affairs spokesman, close to Charles Kennedy’s circle

Weaknesses: Level of support questionable; earned reputation as right-wing free marketeer before tacking towards the centre

GREG HURST

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