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Strategists say that they are expecting a record low turnout across the country, with activists registering their opposition to Tony Blair’s stance on Iraq by refusing to get involved in the campaign.
“There are parts of the country where canvassing and (knocking on doors) is going to be virtually non-existent,” said one minister closely involved with planning the campaign. “Unfortunately, these areas are also where we are most vulnerable, like Kent and Bristol. We are preparing for a very difficult night.”
Senior party officials also fear a wave of damaging resignations of local party officials between now and the poll in May.
Richard Price, chairman of the Gloucester Constituency Labour Party, said yesterday that he was standing down from his post at the end of this week in protest at the leadership’s stance on Iraq. Once a Blairite, Mr Price said that he could not see a future for himself within Labour and would consider his immediate resignation should troops enter Iraq.
Jack Straw acknowledged the difficulties faced by the Government after the march in London on Saturday, when an estimated one million people took to the streets to protest against the build-up to war. The Foreign Secretary accepted that the Government had to take account of public opinion when it makes its decision on military action: “It’s very difficult indeed in those circumstances. It is patently more straightforward for governments to take a country to war if they palpably have got the whole of the population behind them than if not.”
Even a “short, sharp war” completed well before the May 1 poll would not necessarily help Labour out of its troubles. Resentment over Mr Blair’s unwavering support for President Bush has left many members feeling disenchanted with the Government.
Party members also have a strong emotional attachment to the United Nations, making any action without its explicit backing a resignation issue for many, according to a senior party official: “Moving without backing from the United Nations would be the last straw for a lot of members. We have not had a flood of resignations so far, but I sense people are holding on to see what happens with the UN.”
The antipathy in Labour ranks has resulted in one party member setting up a website — www.cutitup.co.uk — calling on fellow members to cut up their membership cards in protest. John Sargent, the site’s creator, said that he felt compelled to act after seeing the amount of ill-feeling among ordinary members over the attitude of its leadership.
He said that the site had already received several hundred hits since its launch last weekend, with many members contacting him to voice their support. “The site was born out of total frustration that no matter what the polls said and no matter how huge the demonstrations, the leaders of the party simply would not listen,” he said.
“It is quite a major step that we are asking people to take, but that is the way I feel. There are a lot of people who feel the same way. I have spoken to party members across the country and they are very, very unhappy at what is happening and very opposed to war and the line the whole leadership is taking. This is the ultimate way to put on pressure and show the strength of feeling that exists.”
The site, which calls on members to mount vigorous campaigns against the war, says: “If you are a Labour Party member who is really angry about the war, you could take the ultimate plunge and commit yourself to ‘cutitup’.” The site also provides a pledge form to be filled in and sent with the chopped-up card to 10 Downing Street.
Mr Sargent, a member of the party in Keighley, West Yorkshire, said that he would be cutting up his card pending the start of military action in Iraq.
He said that he had rejoined the party in the mid-1990s, believing that Mr Blair had helped the party to “rediscover its relevance . . . I had much higher hopes for Tony Blair and new Labour. I was seriously disillusioned and this has just been the final straw.”
Senior party figures say that although a few months ago the prospect of losing 500 seats would have appeared devastating, now it might be greeted with a sigh of relief.
Labour’s problems are magnified in Scotland, where strategists are anxious that the Iraq factor will hit the party hard in parliamentary elections.
At present, Labour is in coalition with the Liberal Democrats in the ruling Scottish Executive, and up until two weeks ago a repeat of that appeared the most likely outcome on May 1 this year.
Two recent opinion polls have shown the Scottish National Party, the main opposition party, which is adopting a fiercely anti-war stance, gaining ground. One poll showed Labour losing up to nine seats in May, opening the door to an SNP-Lib Dem coalition.
Crucial for Labour to hold on to power are first-past-the-post seats in Aberdeen South, where Labour has a majority of only 398 over the SNP. Dundee West is another key battleground where Labour is just 121 ahead of the SNP.
Of more general concern are reports suggesting that three out of four Labour constituencies in a recent newspaper survey reported serious discontent among members over Iraq.
One survey of 72 constituency Labour parties found more than one in three admitted that members have either resigned or are threatening to resign over the issue.

Sam Coates's blog about Westminster, politics and spin
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