LABOUR is holding on to first place, the Tories are not making further gains and the Liberal Democrats are ahead of their position in 2001. This is the message of the weekend batch of opinion polls after the first week of on/off campaigning.

The party ratings in the ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph and the YouGov in The Sunday Times are within a point or two not only of their own previous polls but also of each other, and of the last Populus poll for The Times.

Labour is on 36-38 per cent, the Tories on 34-35 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 20-21 per cent.

The exception is MORI in The Observer, which puts Labour on 40 per cent and the Tories on 33 per cent. This is a marked contrast with the MORI poll last Tuesday, which, on a comparable basis, put the Tories ahead on 39 per cent and Labour on 34 per cent. This produced lots of comment then, even though it was out of line with other polls.

These figures are based on those saying that they are certain to vote, which is up from 55 to 61 per cent between the two polls. On the broader basis of all naming a party, Labour support is up from 38 to 41 per cent, with the Tories down from 33 to 30 per cent.

Taken together, the latest polls suggest that the two-to-three points rise in Tory support reported last Tuesday has not developed into a further advance. Talk of a Tory surge has been shown to be misplaced. The start of the formal campaign and the high-profile involvement of Gordon Brown may have led to a slight firming in Labour support.

With Labour support clearly below 40 per cent on most polls, the election looks closer than 1997 and 2001. But it is wrong to see a two, three or even four-point gap as implying a neck-and-neck race. It is not. The electoral system strongly favours Labour, despite the reduction of 13 in the number of Scottish MPs (10 of them Labour). Labour’s vote is concentrated more effectively than is the Tories’, and it gains more MPs per vote.

Although the Liberal Democrats may gain at Labour’s expense this time, even a two-point gap between Labour and the Tories would still give Tony Blair an overall majority of 70 to 100. The Tories would have to be well ahead of Labour’s share of the vote, not yet shown by any poll, even to deny Mr Blair an overall majority. That would probably leave Michael Howard nearly 100 short of an overall majority.

The key prop for Labour’s poll ratings is the public’s positive view about the economy. Mr Blair is still favoured as the best prime minister. Yet the public no longer trusts Mr Blair, and has widespread doubts about whether public services have improved, particularly over law and order. And the Tories are clearly ahead of Labour on the issue of immigration and asylum.

The election battle is over the large number of disillusioned Labour voters who are not ready to shift to the Tories and do not yet believe that Mr Howard could do better. Will they back the Liberal Democrats? Or will they abstain?

The key polling question is whether such Labour sympathisers turn out to vote. If Labour certainty to vote, and overall turnout, rises, then Mr Blair need no longer worry. But he is not safe yet.

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