A Populus poll for The Times, undertaken last weekend, highlights the Tories’ problems nearly halfway through the campaign. The poll implies a turnout of 63 per cent, up from 59 per cent in 2001.

A big majority of voters (71 per cent) expects another Labour victory. Half think the margin will be 100 seats or less, down from 165 in 2001. By nearly two to one (51 per cent to 27 per cent), Tory voters think that Labour will win a majority.

More than a third of voters would prefer a Labour majority, with a fifth wanting a Tory majority; as many as want a hung Parliament with no overall majority. The poll puts Labour on 40 per cent, the Tories on 31 per cent, the Lib Dems on 21 per cent, and the others on 8 per cent. Tory supporters are more likely than Labour ones to say that they are certain to vote, by 72 to 63 per cent. This advantage lowers Labour’s lead by 2 points.

The nine non-internet polls published since the election was called a fortnight ago put Labour at between 38 and 40 per cent, and the Tories between 30 and 35 per cent. The seven YouGov internet polls put Labour on 36 to 38 per cent, and the Tories on 35 per cent.

All polls put the Lib Dems on 21 or 22 per cent.

Mr Howard trails in third place, on 20 per cent, among all voters in impressing most so far in the campaign, behind Tony Blair on 30 per cent and Mr Kennedy on 23 per cent.

Among swing voters, Mr Kennedy is ahead on 29 per cent, against 23 per cent for Mr Blair and 18 per cent for Mr Howard, although the favourable publicity surrounding the birth of Mr Kennedy’s son, Donald, a week ago was later followed by critical comments about his party’s manifesto.

The Tories have failed to convince voters on taxes. Half the public (51 per cent) believes that taxes will rise if the Tories win. Just 11 per cent think that the Tories will cut taxes, down two points.

By contrast, nearly three in five (59 per cent) think that Labour would raise taxes, a drop of 12 points since December.

This follows last week’s manifesto pledge that Labour would not raise the basic or higher rates of income tax and is despite opposition charges about a rise in national insurance contributions. A mere 3 per cent think that Labour would cut taxes.

More Tory voters think that their party would put taxes up (31 per cent) than would cut them (20 per cent). More than a third of Labour voters (36 per cent) believe that taxes will rise if their party is re-elected.

The only issue clearly favouring the Tories is immigration. By nearly three to one (46 to 16 per cent), voters think that the numbers coming into Britain would decrease rather than increase if there were a Conservative government.

By contrast, nearly two fifths (37 per cent) think that immigration will rise if Labour is re-elected, with just 15 per cent thinking that numbers will fall.

More voters believe that crime will rise rather than fall if either Labour (32 to 15 per cent) or the Tory party (26 to 18 per cent) wins on May 5.

Voter are sceptical about improvements in public services. Just 32 per cent believe the NHS will improve if Labour wins, with 18 per cent believing it will get worse. The public is evenly split, 25 to 24 per cent, about will happen to the NHS if the Tories win.

Similarly, just 37 per cent think spending on frontline public services will increase if Labour wins, against 15 per cent believing it will be cut.

Despite Mr Howard’s promise to match Labour plans, more voters think that the Conservatives would cut spending on frontline services than would increase it, by 31 to 25 per cent.

• Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged over 18 by telephone between April 14 and 17. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For more details, go to www.populuslimited.com.

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