LABOUR has strengthened its leading position in the opinion polls as the campaign enters its final three days, brushing aside the controversy over the Iraq war and the attacks on Tony Blair’s honesty.

Labour’s has improved its position on the issues that voters regard as the most important. Half the public rates Labour as the best party for managing the economy, double the number mentioning the Tories (51 to 25 per cent).

The latest Times/ITV News tracker poll, produced by Populus, puts Labour on 42 per cent, up two points on the previous day, with the Tories down two points at 29 per cent, their lowest figure of the campaign. The Liberal Democrats are on 21 per cent, and other parties on 8 per cent.

These figures should not be seen as a prediction of the final share of the votes or number of MPs on Thursday: the tracker is intended to measure the momentum and trends of the campaign. It is a four-day moving average, a quarter of which is renewed every night.

Nonetheless, the trends are favourable for Labour. There is no sign of any slippage; rather, the reverse as the number of Labour supporters saying that they are certain to vote is up two points to 65 per cent. Labour has increased its lead as the best party on 11 of the 12 most important issues since the start of the campaign. It has extended its lead on the key issues of the NHS and education. The Tories are ahead only on immigration, but their advantage has halved during the campaign, from ten to four points.

Iraq comes in eleventh in the ranking of the most important issues.

Labour’s big advantage on the economy is underpinned by the 77 per cent of the public thinking that it will fare well over the next year, a rise of seven points since early April. By contrast, 19 per cent think that the country will fare badly, a drop of four points. By a 75 to 19 per cent margin, voters believe that the economy will do well for them and their families. This compares with 63 to 29 per cent a month ago.

Support for the Liberal Democrats remains solid.

Two questions have been raised, mainly by Labour, about the polls. First, there has been the claim that the battle is different, and tighter, in marginal seats. But the campaign is bound to be different and closer in these seats. In 2001, Labour did better than the national average in these marginals. Even if Labour now does worse than average in these seats, it might make a difference of perhaps only 20 to 30 in the size of any Labour majority.

Similarly, the Labour claim that a vote for the Lib Dems would let the Tories in by the back door is probably true in only ten to twenty seats at most in this category.

Secondly, Labour fears that low turnout may damage it. However, while Labour’s rating falls to 36 per cent (against 33 per cent for the Tories) in polls such as MORI, which produce figures on the basis of those certain to vote, this would still indicate a Labour overall majority of 80 to 100, down from 161 in the last Parliament. That is also shown by the YouGov internet poll.

The figures from Populus are weighted to take account of each voter’s likelihood to turn out, implying a turnout of 60 per cent. However, if only those saying that they are certain to vote and expressing a party preference were to vote, implying a turnout of only 43 per cent, Labour would still be ahead, on 41 per cent, against 31 per cent for the Tories.

• Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,427 adults aged over 18 by telephone between April 27 and 30 about voting intentions, and 712 adults between April 29 and 30 about issues. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For more information, visit the website www.populuslimited.com

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