UNTIL last month the bookies would have given odds of 1,000-1 on an Independent taking the seat of Blaenau Gwent, held by Labour at the last election with a majority of more than 19,000. Yesterday, the odds being offered by Jack Brown’s bookmakers on the chances of Peter Law beating Tony Blair’s preferred candidate had fallen to 8-11.

The constituency, previously Ebbw Vale, was once an industrial powerhouse. Now the steelworks that powered the economy of South Wales have been bulldozed, leaving a brown scar and a lingering sense of bitterness and betrayal.

During the 50 years that the seat was represented by Aneurin Bevan and then Michael Foot, Labour was as ingrained as the grime on the faces of the steelworkers. Mr Law, who joined the Labour Party at the age of 14, is the constituency’s representative in the Welsh Assembly and a former mayor.

Many in the local party believed that he had earned the right to stand when the previous incumbent, Llew Smith, announced that he was stepping down. Instead, Labour insisted on an all-woman shortlist and then chose a London lawyer, Maggie Jones, as the candidate.

Even after Mr Law announced that he would be standing as an Independent, no one at Labour Party HQ seemed to have appreciated the danger. It is only in the past couple of weeks that the possibility of losing the safest seat in Wales and the fifth safest in Britain has been realised.

Although he remains unconvinced, the bookies, the local paper, even the retiring Labour MP, all believe that Mr Law, 56, will win. “People here feel they have been treated like sheep and taken for granted, and they aren’t putting up with it any longer,” he said.

BLAENAU GWENT

MP: Llew Smith since 1992 (retiring)

2001 result

Labour 22,855

Plaid Cymru 3,542

Liberal Democrat 2,945

Conservative 2,383

Majority 19,313

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