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The disclosure represents a significant shift in Labour’s position on how MPs are elected and could yet herald the introduction of a similar voting system to those in place for the Scottish and European parliaments and the Welsh Assembly.
Although Labour’s manifesto renewed previous commitments to holding its long- expected inquiry into the success of these systems, the disclosure that it was already under way took the Liberal Democrat leadership by surprise. Charles Kennedy said that under a deal negotiated with the Government before the last election he had been led to believe that he would be involved.
Tony Blair’s pledge in 1997 to hold a referendum on introducing a more proportional voting system was sidelined after successive landslide victories, the scale of which were exaggerated by the current rules. In this election, the distribution of parties’ votes across constituencies may mean the system benefits Labour as never before.
In some circumstances, Labour could win an overall Commons majority of more than 50 with fewer votes than the Conservatives. Michael Howard may need to be at least 10 per cent ahead in the overall share of the vote before the Tories have a majority of MPs.
Labour insists it does not expect such an outcome and significantly there is no pressure for reform from the Tory leadership. But privately, some ministers say opinion polls pointing to a close contest in this election could leave the Government facing real questions about its legitimacy.
The last time a party was elected with fewer votes than its main opponent was in 1974, when Harold Wilson formed a minority Labour government. But the margins between the two main parties were much tighter and the electoral system did not have such an influence on the result.
Before 1997 Mr Blair is known to have been worried about governing with a small majority and held talks with Paddy Ashdown, the then Lib Dem leader, about forming a coalition. Although this plan was swiftly dropped, the two parties did have a limited co-operation pact on constitutional reform, while Lord Jenkins of Hillhead produced a report for the Goverment which recommended a more proportional system.
Lord Jenkins’s report was shelved and the pact disintegrated after Mr Kennedy became Lib Dem leader. The sole remnant of this deal was Mr Blair’s promise of a review of new voting systems introduced for European, Scottish and Welsh elections. As recently as last autumn, even this appeared to have been scotched.
This week the Prime Minister told reporters that the debate on voting reform needed to “come to a conclusion in the lifetime of the next Parliament”. Although Mr Blair remains sceptical, he is said to recognise that there is “unfinished business” on constitutional reform from his first term.
Mr Kennedy said he was unaware that the review was under way, even though Mr Blair had assured him four years ago that his party would be able to submit its views to an inquiry.
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