LABOUR’S confidence about its election prospects was strengthened last night as it recorded its highest rating since the fall of Baghdad in the latest Populus poll for The Times.

The party has risen above 40 per cent for the first time since April 2003, after a month in which Iraq took its first steps towards democracy.

The poll gives Labour 41 per cent, three percentage points higher than a month ago. Conservative support remains flat, with a one-point fall to 32 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are down two at 18 per cent.

On a day when stringent curbs to stop immigrants and asylum-seekers “abusing British hospitality” were promised, the poll showed immigration to be the area where Labour is most vulnerable to the Tories.

As Charles Clarke, the Home Secretary, announced restrictions on low-skilled overseas workers and failed asylum-seekers, the poll showed that immigration is the only one of 12 key policy issues where the Tories are well ahead of Labour.

The findings, understood to be matched by Labour and Tory private polling, illustrate the urgency behind yesterday’s measures and the Tory decision to play the issue so hard.

It is certain to fuel fierce political debate up to and during the general election campaign. Mr Clarke denounced Conservative plans for a fixed quota of refugees and withdrawing from the Geneva Convention as “unworkable, unjust, counter- productive and immoral”.

David Davis, the Shadow Home Secretary, accused the Government of creating a “confused, weak and chaotic” system, calling the plans “the latest headline initiative from a panic-stricken Government.”

As the polls show increasing voter concern over immigration, Tony Blair has become more closely involved in drawing up the five-year plan. In its introduction, he said that Britain would be poorer in every way without centuries of immigration. But he added: “This traditional tolerance is under threat. It is under threat from those who come and live here illegally by breaking our rules and abusing our hospitality. Unless we act to tackle abuses, it could be increasingly exploited by extremists to promote their perverted view of race.”

In an unexpected move, Mr Clarke announced that low-skilled workers not from EU or Western European countries will be prevented from settling permanently in Britain. Only skilled workers will be allowed to settle, with the unskilled allowed to remain only for short periods of time. Skilled workers will have to pass tests in the English language and their knowledge of British life.

The waiting period for skilled workers wishing to remain permanently will be extended from four to five years. Employers caught using illegal immigrants will face an on-the-spot fine of £2,000 per person.

For the first time this month, Populus included RobertKilroy-Silk’s new Veritas party in the list of other parties. It attracted 0.35 per cent support, compared with 1 per cent for the UK Independence Party.

The poll confirms an upward trend for Labour. In the first nine months of last year, it averaged 34 per cent but that has risen to 37 per cent since.

Tory support has slipped from an average of 34 per cent during the early months of Michael Howard’s leadership to 31 per cent — less than the Tories achieved at the last election and only just above its average rating during Iain Duncan Smith’s two years as leader.

Charles Kennedy’s Liberal Democrats are on a slight downward trend, from an average of 23 per cent in 2003. The latest 18 per cent rating is well below the party’s recent range.

However, the poll shows that a third of the public who are likely to vote are swing voters, either completely undecided or possibly going to change party before the election. The poll implies a turnout of 57 per cent, down from the previous low of 59 per cent in 2001.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,518 adults aged over 18 by telephone between February 4 and 6. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. More details are on the Populus website: www.populuslimited.com.

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