A MYSTERY has appeared in recent opinion polls. The public appears to have become less hostile to the EU constitution. But is this a real change in opinion? Or does it reflect the particular wording of the question in the Bill being debated by MPs today, and now being asked by pollsters? This wording has been cleared for intelligibility by the Electoral Commission and accepted by the main parties.

The latest Populus poll for The Times shows, for the first time, more people saying that they would vote yes rather than no in a referendum held now with the official ballot question, “Should the UK approve the treaty establishing a constitution for the European Union?” The poll, undertaken between Februacy 4 and 6 among 1,518 adults, found that 36 per cent say they would vote yes, and 29 per cent no.

This does not come completely out of the blue. At the end of January, a Populus poll for the News of the World, which forced voters to choose yes or no on the referendum question, came out with 45 per cent in favour and 55 per cent no. The difference is that the latest poll offered other options, with 30 per cent saying that they would not vote and 5 per cent being don’t knows. The implication is that no voters may be more likely than yes voters to say, when that option is offered, that they would probably not vote at all in the referendum.

An ICM poll late last month, with a don’t know option but not a would not vote one, had 39 per cent saying they would vote yes, and 42 per cent no. A fifth (21 per cent) said that they did not know. A YouGov poll taken at the same time on a similar basis to the Populus poll showed 24 per cent in favour, 45 per cent against, 7 per cent would not vote and 25 per cent did not know.

Part of the answer may lie in the wording. The words “approve” and “treaty” are favourable. ICM has tested this view by putting the Government’s question and a slightly different one. The official question produced an even 39 to 39 per cent split. But a question asking, “If there were a referendum tomorrow, would you vote for Britain to sign up to the European constitution or not?” produced 26 per cent in favour and 54 per cent against.

The no camp are crying foul, but their fears may be overdone. There is a big distinction between opinion polls and referendum campaigns. There is ample evidence that, while the precise wording can make a huge difference to responses to a poll question, it does not matter in a referendum. Unlike an opinion poll, where a question is asked without notice, a referendum follows a lengthy campaign when views are likely to crystalise around the yes or no camps. Come the referendum next year, those people who turn out and vote will have focused on a yes or no choice rather than on the precise question.

The poll findings, however tentatively interpreted, should not be entirely discounted. The earlier level of opposition to the constitution may have been overstated and the true state of public opinion on the referendum question may be closer than has previously been assumed. The implication is that the outcome of the referendum is still uncertain.

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