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Mr Howard said that at 63, he would not lead the party into the next election, so it was better to go quickly and give his successor time to prepare the party for the next contest.
However, he complicated matters by saying that he would stay on until the party decided whether to change the current rules on leadership elections, unpopular with MPs, which give rank-and-file members the final say over who gets the job. That means that the party faces a protracted phoney war as lengthy discussions over leadership elections run on until the autumn.
The leadership battle will be the fourth in eight years for the party, but Mr Howard said it was better that he went sooner rather than later. “At the time of the next election, I will be 67 or 68 and I believe that is simply too old to lead a party into government,” Mr Howard told activists gathered at Roehampton to celebrate Tory gains. “So if I can’t fight the next election as leader of our party, I believe it is better for me to stand aside sooner rather than later so that the party can choose someone who can. I want to avoid the uncertainty of prolonged debate about the leadership of the party,” he said.
Bookies immediately made David Davis, the Shadow Home Secretary, favourite to succeed Mr Howard. It is unclear who from the modernising wing of the party would challenge him. One MP said that negotiations over prospective candidates would begin in earnest next week when MPs return to the Commons. Candidates include Andrew Lansley, the Shadow Health Secretary, and David Cameron.
They would benefit from a change to the leadership rules, which favour rightwingers. Many MPs responded with fury to Mr Howard’s decision to quit after their disappointing performance at the polls. They said that just at the time when Tony Blair comes under serious pressure because of his sharply decreased majority, the Conservatives would be embroiled in a leadership battle.
One senior backbencher said: “He led us to believe we would not face another leadership contest on the rebound from a big election defeat which almost everyone believes is the worst time to choose a leader.”
MPs from the modernising wing of the party who disliked Mr Howard’s core vote election strategy, with its focus on immigration and attacks on Tony Blair, welcomed his decision to quit. “I think it shows he has accepted his approach, tried now for a second time, has not worked and it’s time for something different,” one leading moderniser said.
Most MPs accepted that it has been a disappointing election for the Conservatives. Although Labour’s majority was reduced, the Tories failed to reach the minimum target they set Mr Howard of 209 seats.
Party officials have been working on plans to restore the power to choose the leader to MPs for more than a year. But winning agreement for a change is far from straightforward. Rank-and-file members are almost certain to challenge a move to strip them of their powers. They will be supported by some Eurosceptic MPs who know that their leadership candidate has a better chance if activists have a say.
The outcome of the leadership contest will rest in part on the 50 or so new MPs arriving at the Commons next week. They make up a quarter of the party and will be inundated with invitations to parties, lunches and one-to-one meetings as the leadership contenders seek to win them over.
LEADERSHIP ELECTION RULES
Under current rules the leadership contest is narrowed down to two candidates in exhaustive ballots of MPs. They then go forward to rank-and-file members in a final run-off
In September or October there will be a further meeting of the National Convention to approve more detailed proposals. If they are passed, a leadership contest could be completed by the end of the year
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