What happened to the main parties the last time there were Euro elections?

The UK Independence Party was the big winner of the 2004 election, with a gain of 10 seats and a 16.2 per cent share of the vote, putting it third behind the Conservatives and Labour. Both the Conservatives and Labour lost seats (8 and 6 respectively). The full results for 2004 were: Con 27 seats (26.7 per cent of vote), Lab 19 (22.6 per cent), UKIP 12 (16.2 per cent), Lib Dem 12 (14.9 per cent), Green 2 (6.2 per cent), SNP 2 (1.4 per cent), PC 1 (1 per cent), DUP 1, SF1, UUP 1. The BNP had 4.9 per cent of the national vote and Respect 1.5 per cent, but no seats.

It is often said that voters take a limited interest in Euro elections and that they bear no relation to the national picture. Could it be different this time?

The anger over MPs’ expenses seems to have put off mainstream voters and at the same time galvanised interest in smaller parties. Turnout last time was 38.4 per cent, boosted in some areas by all-postal ballots, and up on 24 per cent in 1999.

What issues do people traditionally vote on in Euro pols?

National, domestic, issues usually drive the choice of party at the European Parliament poll, combined with the knowledge that it will not directly change the government of the day — although the result will send a strong message. The Conservatives and UKIP are counting on increased support from voters angry at the Government’s decision not to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, which was largely a rewrite of the rejected EU Constitution on which they promised a referendum.

Will we see a surge in support for marginal parties such UKIP?

Smaller parties are well placed to profit from the system of proportional representation used to calculate seats in the UK’s 12 electoral regions. Unlike Westminster’s first past the post system, it means that they can win a seat with around 8 to10 per cent of the vote.

And what are the dangers of that?

A low turnout in this voting system makes it easier for fringe parties, such as the British National Party, to win seats for the first time. The main danger is to the traditional advantage enjoyed by the main three parties who have all been tarnished by the expenses scandal.

Which of the main parties is likely to be the biggest winner?

With the number of seats reduced from 78 to 72, and given the hostile atmosphere created by the expenses scandal, the three main parties will be satisfied if they can keep the same number of seats they had in the last European Parliament. In the regions losing a seat, three of the lowest-placed MEPs in 2004 were from the Conservatives, two from the Lib Dems and one from Labour.

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