Philip Webster, Political Editor
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Gordon Brown’s allies and at least some of those who want him out appeared to agree yesterday that he should be given a breathing space after the shock of the European election results.
His supporters pray that he will use it to save his career, helped perhaps by the first economic “green shoots”. His opponents, fearing that the latest Cabinet and backbench revolt is not going to do the job of ousting him, believe that if the Prime Minister has not turned the corner by autumn he could not survive another move against him and would be persuaded to go.
The advantage of that course to both supporters and plotters is the avoidance of an early general election. Anyone replacing Mr Brown in the autumn would probably get away with announcing a spring election, both sides believe.
Several senior ministers hinted yesterday at what might happen if Mr Brown got through today.
Tessa Jowell, after making clear her belief that Mr Brown remained the man for the job, was asked on BBC Radio 4’s the World This Weekend if he would be prepared to stand down if his senior colleagues advised him to. She replied: “Gordon Brown loves the Labour Party, he is Labour through and through. If Gordon Brown were to reach a conclusion that he personally was an obstacle to Labour’s recovery and achievement, then of course like Tony Blair did . . .”
It was the first time that any senior minister had raised publicly what many believe in private — that Mr Brown, while believing that he is the right man to lead Labour now, would go if he became convinced that he could do no more and that a successor would help his party.
Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, whose ferocious backing has been the biggest factor in Mr Brown’s survival so far, spoke with growing confidence yesterday that there would be no challenge to Mr Brown.
For the Prime Minister to reconsider his position “it would require somebody to stand against him — somebody who’s raising their standard and saying that they could do a better job. And we don’t have that person.”
He added: “One of the reasons we don’t have that person is because in Cabinet people think highly of Gordon Brown and are united behind him. And secondly they know full well that if we were to have a third leader in a single Parliament it would mean irresistible pressure to hold a general election.”
Lord Falconer, the former Lord Chancellor, who yesterday became the latest senior figure to call on Mr Brown to quit, also gave a clue that those pressing for his removal know that they may have to wait longer.
Asked whether the change should come sooner or later, Lord Falconer replied: “Whether it’s now or whether in October I’m not sure.”
He added: “I think one should not have artificial deadlines like Monday’s meeting or this occasion or that occasion.”
Provided that he gets through today, Mr Brown and his ministers plan a fierce burst of activity over the coming days to show that the Government is back in business. The Prime Minister will call the first meeting of the National Democratic Council this week to prepare the ground for the discussion of new constitutional reforms. He is also preparing to outline new plans for public service reform.
The “peasants’ revolt” against Mr Brown lost momentum last night as his opponents divided over tactics. Only 17 out of 350 Labour MPs contacted by a Sunday newspaper were willing to express anonymous opposition to Mr Brown, and there was little sign of the 80 names talked about by rebels last week.
Talk of a round robin e-mail all but disappeared, with some rebels saying that it was the wrong tactic, and suggestions of a ruthlessly organised coup involving MPs divided into “terror cells” evaporated.
Some rebels suggested that they were relying on the Cabinet abandoning its support for Mr Brown, while others were hoping that grassroot activists would revolt over the new shape of the Government, which now includes two new peers — Lord Adonis in Transport, and Lady Kinnock, who will be ennobled and made the Minister for Europe.
FIVE TO WATCH
These are the five mainstream Labour figures whose defection to the rebels could push Gordon Brown’s premiership to the brink:
John McFall Chairman of the Commons Treasury Select Committee and long-time ally of Mr Brown. Has voiced some criticism of him but he is still hugely influential.
Sir Gerald Kaufman The long-standing former Culture Select Committee chairman and author would have huge influence if he spoke out.
Tony Lloyd One public whisper of opposition from this little-known figure and the Prime Minister’s career would be toast. He is the chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party, often sent out to defend Mr Brown against the odds.
Ian Austin The squeaking assassin has long been a bruiser for Mr Brown so if he turned on the Prime Minister it would be fatal.
Lord Mandelson The über-Blairite turned über-Brownite is almost single-handedly responsible for Mr Brown’s political survival. But he who lives by Lord Mandelson can die by Lord Mandelson.

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