Tony Blair cannot escape the Iraq issue. The war and its murderous aftermath have become the symbol for the mistrust with which he is regarded by many voters, despite grudging respect for his strength as a leader and his overall impact. That is the main message of a Populus poll for The Times, undertaken on Wednesday evening and yesterday.

A mere one in five voters says that he or she trusts Mr Blair, with 71 per cent not trusting him. More than a third of Labour voters now say that they do not trust him.

Just three out of ten voters are sorry that he is stepping down, including fewer than three out of five Labour voters. Nearly three fifths of all voters, and a third of Labour supporters, think that he “lied to the country over Iraq, and that overshadows everything else he has done, and tried to do, as Prime Minister”.

Assessments of the Blair years are dominated, even distorted, by Iraq. For many, it is the prism through which everything else is seen. This makes a detached analysis of Mr Blair’s overall record more elusive at this stage.

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BACKGROUND

• The past decade a disaster?

• All about Iraq? Don’t you believe it

• I’ll give Blair six and a half out of ten

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• Cherie Blair picture gallery

• Brookes on Blair

Those who were questioned yesterday lunchtime, after Mr Blair’s televised announcement, were more favourable than those interviewed on Wednesday, although the numbers were too small to be statistically significant.

Two thirds of all voters agree that Mr Blair is “a strong leader who has stood up for what he believes is right, regardless of whether people agree with him”. This is among the most important attributes that voters look for in a leader.

A majority of voters, 52 per cent, say that they had “very high hopes of Mr Blair when he was first elected, but he has turned out to be a great disappointment overall”. But just over two fifths (43 per cent) say that “even though many people have grown tired of Mr Blair now, he has changed Britain significantly for the better in the ten years he has been Prime Minister”.

There is a marked gender gap. Men are split evenly between these two views, but women are more negative, with 54 per cent judging him a great disappointment, and only 35 per cent saying that he has changed Britain significantly for the better.

Five times as many voters think that Mr Blair will go down in history as a bad prime minister than as a great one, by a 20 per cent to 4 per cent margin. Thirty-five per cent think that he has been a good or great leader, against 43 per cent who say that he has been average.

There is a sharp divide along party lines. More than three quarters of Labour voters think that Mr Blair will be remembered as good or great, the view of only a quarter of nonLabour voters.

There is a negative view of Mr Blair’s record on eight key policy issues. The sole exception is Northern Ireland, where nearly three quarters believe that Mr Blair has done a good job, after the revival of devolution on Tuesday. By contrast, and no doubt heavily influenced by Iraq, 63 per cent say that he has made a bad job of foreign affairs and defence, and just 29 per cent a good job.

The recent controversies over the NHS have damaged Mr Blair, with 57 per cent saying that he has done a bad job in health, and just 35 per cent a good job. This closely matches the responses on reform of public services, where 32 per cent say he has done a good job, and 59 per cent a bad one.

There is a narrower gap on education, with 45 per cent saying that he has done a good job and 48 per cent a bad one.

On crime, two fifths say that he has done a good job on both taxes and the economy and tackling poverty, but half say that in each case he has done a a bad job.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 506 adults aged over 18 by telephone on May 9 and 10. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. For more details go to www.populus limited.com.

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