Most of the time, the government manifests its rumbling disdain for the awkward rigours of statistics by cherry-picking positive data or rubbishing negative data. Sometimes, however, circumstances call for a more spectacular gesture.

This month the Royal Statistical Society achieved a small victory in ensuring that statistics remain independent from politics. As of December 1, the government is forbidden from receiving pre-release copies of statistical publications more than 24 hours in advance – previously they had five days. It’s probably not a matter of life and death and it doesn’t go far enough, but this is a good thing.

Statistics should be like the weather: stark, irrefutable facts about the world outside. Give a government spin doctor a five day start and anything can happen. Suddenly the sky is always blue, winter storms came from a butterfly flapping its wings in an opposition constituency and a single Scottish data point proves that Britain enjoys continuous displays of the northern lights.

So what happened after this inconvenient rule change? Did the government sneak a report out 25 hours in advance? Did they hold a succession of 5-day nostalgic pre-release parties starting November 25? No. They got their hands on - and released - statistics that were not due for publication for three months from a report that was not even completed.

The UK Statistics Authority has rarely been so strident. Jacqui Smith’s release of figures showing an apparent fall in some hospital admissions linked to knife crime was “premature”. The data was “irregular and selective”. The Home Secretary apologised – after a fashion – but no one has explained how they received the data.

Actions like this undermine statisticians, create an impression that data is just spin and destroy people’s faith in numbers. And - at least when it comes to evaluating knife crime policy - that might just be a matter of life and death after all.

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