It is supposed to be the “silly season” when international affairs shut down and politicians really do spend more time with their families. But this year the fast pace of global events shows no sign of slacking off for the summer.

With Iran still in the grip of a titanic power struggle, fighting intensifying in Afghanistan and Pakistan and much of the world still recovering from economic recession, the summer of 2009 promises to be memorable for all the wrong reasons.

Attention is still focused squarely on Iran and the battle between reformists and hardliners for the future of the Islamic state. With the dispute over the result of the presidential election being played out on the streets of Tehran, the contest shows every sign of becoming increasingly violent. The struggle threatens to split the regime in two. President Ahmadinejad will be sworn into a second term of office within the next few weeks, but against the wishes of many key figures in the leadership.

Certainly the peace overtures made by President Obama this year will have to be shelved. But that does not mean that Middle East peace efforts are doomed. Washington has just agreed to appoint a new ambassador to Damascus amid hopes of fresh negotiations for a comprehensive peace between Israel and the Arab states.

Though hardliners in Iran are in charge, they have to maintain a rearguard action against the opposition. Domestic turmoil in Tehran may make it more difficult for Iran to promote Islamic militants elsewhere in the region. One looming danger remains, however. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remains President for another four years, he will likely press ahead with his country’s controversial nuclear programme. This in turn could provoke an Israeli pre-emptive attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities. What to do about Iran is also set to dominate the debate at this year’s United Nations General Assembly in New York, where world leaders will gather at the end of September.

Fears of nuclear proliferation are not confined to the Middle East. North Korea’s aggressive push to restart its nuclear programme and boost its ballistic missile capability is thought to mask a succession battle under way in the Stalinist state. The ailing supreme leader, Kim Jong Il, is believed to have chosen his younger son Kim Jong Un, 26, as his replacement. The entire region is on alert for trouble.

Nuclear weapons and their reduction in number will probably dominate talks in Moscow in July when President Obama makes his first visit to Russia for talks with President Dmitri Medvedev. Washington wants to press the “reset button” with the Kremlin. The best way would be to agree a deal to reduce their nuclear stockpiles by a third, to around 1,500 each.

Mr Obama then goes to Italy for the annual G8 summit of the world’s most industrialised nations — America, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Russia.

For some of the figures around the table this may be their last chance to participate as members of the world’s most exclusive club.

The position of Silvio Berlusconi, the veteran Italian leader and host of this year’s G8, is looking increasingly precarious because of the growing public scandal about his relationship with a string of young women. The issue has led to his wife demanding a divorce on the ground that he is consorting “with minors”.

The Japanese Prime Minister, Taro Aso, remains deeply unpopular at home as he leads the ruling Liberal Democratic Party into elections that are likely to be held in August or September. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has a better chance of staying in power when Germany holds general elections at the end of September. Not so Gordon Brown, who may yet be tempted to make way for a new Labour leader and trigger fresh elections in Britain this autumn. In any event, opinion polls and this year’s local and European election results indicate that he is very unlikely to be Britain’s Prime Minister this time next year.

Apart from their domestic political problems, world leaders nevertheless will be keen to co-ordinate strategy in Pakistan and Afghanistan, where many have troops serving. America is already deploying 21,000 soldiers and marines as part of a mini surge alongside several thousand Nato reinforcements. Part of the aim is to stabilise the country and make presidential elections possible on August 20. The downside is that President Karzai, the discredited Afghan leader accused of running a corrupt government, is expected to be re-elected.

On the other side of the border, Pakistani forces, fresh from their successful capture of the Swat Valley from the Taleban, are now planning a summer offensive against militant targets deeper in the tribal areas of South Waziristan, the stronghold of al-Qaeda.

Forget the beach. A summer of elections, wars and uncertainty beckons.