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More than a quarter of iPhones sold in the US are being used on a network other than that of Apple's exclusive partner, AT&T, leading to significantly reduced revenues for Apple.
Research by analysts suggests that about a million iPhones - 27 per cent of the total sold - have been unlocked, allowing them to run on unauthorised networks. As a result, Apple is missing out on the share of monthly fees it would get if the phones were run on AT&T's network.
The figure is significantly higher than the previous estimate of 750,000, and could contribute to as much as $500 million in lost revenue, making it a "significant strategic dilemma for Apple," Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Bernstein Research, wrote.
Apple has said that the number of unlocked iPhones was "significant" but has declined to give details.
The iPhone, which was launched last summer, is tied to a single network in each country, with carriers agreeing to share a portion of customers' monthly tariff with Apple in return for being the sole distributor of the device.
Mr Sacconaghi based his analysis on figures from Apple which suggested that the company sold 3.75 million iPhones last year. Subtracting the 2 million devices that AT&T said it had 'activated', and an estimated 315,000 sold in Europe so far, that left 1.45 million phones 'missing in action', Mr Sacconaghi said.
Assuming 480,000 of those were being held by AT&T as inventory, that left about a million that had been 'unlocked', meaning that their owners had downloaded a piece of software which allows the phone to operate on whichever network they choose.
The figure was astounding, Mr Sacconaghi said, given that an unlocked iPhone generates about 50 per cent less revenue and about 75 per cent less profit than one running on an authorised network. If 30 per cent of the 10 million iPhones Apple hoped to sell this year were unlocked, then the company's earnings may be about 37 cents per share lower in each of the next two years, he said.
Apple has declined to comment on the report.
Another analyst firm, Piper Jaffray & Co., estimates that just under 850,000 iPhones - or 25 percent of the total sold - were unlocked last year.
Apple shares closed unchanged at $130.01 yesterday. The stock has fallen by more than 25 per cent in the past two weeks amid concerns that a slowdown in consumer spending may affect sales of electronic goods like computers and media players.
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No big surprise. The buyer simply wants the right to choose his own service provider. By tying down sales to only one service provider, Apple was slitting its own economic throat. Fortunately for Apple, there are those in the tech market, who make a living from overcoming foolish corperate obstructionism.
Mike Callesen, Stowmarket , England
Apple's greed is now rebounding on them.
No phone from any manufacturer should be sold tied to one provider. Everyone should unlock their phones to help stop this 'tied phone' practise. After all, you dont have to change your provider if you dont want to. I would not be surprised to learn that it is against fair trade to buy a product which then restricts your use of it.
howard, london,
Or you could say Apple sold more phones because they were no tied to a single (crappy?) service provider. So despite Apple's and AT&T's best efforts to harm the iPhone, they sold 25% more than they would have otherwise.
Apple makes most of its profit selling iPhones in Apple stores - where it wont have to share the dollars. The iPhone is not cheap - even after the price reduction, but I do think its a good buy. I have nothing against AT&T (I havent used them, so maybe that's why), however I do believe people should be able to use the iPhone how and with whomever they want.
drx1, Washington, DC
What most analysts and others don't get is that this lost revenue is really those people that don't want the features that Apple HAS improved on and WILL improve upon!! That is, each 2 year agreement gives Apple some income to devote money to improving the software product of the iPhone whereas in other 2 year agreements ANY improvement REQUIRES a new 2 year agreement. So the revenue sharing the Apple does is now changing the dynamics of the cell phone industry.
CK, Anywhere USA,
Yes, I'll bet Nokia, MicroSoft, Samsung, Motorola, et al are just so happy that Apple is selling those black market phones everywhere instead of buying their phones. Apple's iPhone is certainly DOOMED now that there is a HUGE black market for them everywhere.
C'mon folks, Apple is now growing market-share where it doesn't even have markets! And Apple is creating a bigger market for developers who buy the SDK and Apple gets to keep production of iPhones ramped up which will help it drive the costs down and recoup the R&D costs!
Also, one more thing. No phone company in the U.S. has ever let customers activate purchased phones at their leisure, like the iPhone. Some people could just be waiting till their previous contracts expire.
Apple is selling 20K iPhones a day at a sustained rate according to their conference call. Black market, gray market, white market, their competitors should be very afraid. Wait till they have a couple more models to cover multiple price points.
Timothy Bandy, Huntsville, USA
I would think Apple was counting on this happening otherwise it have made every customer ativate right away like any other exclusive phone. I would predict that soon it will sell a more expensive unblocked version of the iPhone to balance for the accounts lost revenues. Apple will probable offer the better versions for account only clients leaving the older versions unlocked.
Once more it was a master marketing strategy.
Aleyva, Miami, Florida
Shouldnt have made the Iphones cost an arm and a leg
Tom, Manchester,
Ridiculous, all these comments about "unlocked" phones and "lost revenue". Think about it. What is the alternative for Apple? Ban the sales of the iPhone completely if it is not activated immediately to shut out the "unlocked" market? It is still incremental revenue and profit to Apple. Apple did apply some policies to slow down the excessive sale of iPhones over the holiday season to a few, and no cash payment etc. I am not sure if this is still the rule now but if there is no supply constraint, why not? Who cares what people do with the iPhones? Remember that we are in the midst of a paradigm shift in the traditional mobile phone business model and Apple, right in the centre of it needs to work with the vested interests of several parties to ensure this model works.
TheBoots, Short Hills, USA/NJ