Bernhard Warner
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I realise it’s considered gauche to question a gift, particularly one that comes in a big box. But for those of you who received an HD-DVD player this holiday season, it would be completely understandable if you packed it up and marched it back to the buyer and demanded an explanation.
In fairness, the buyer probably had no idea the HD-DVD player would be obsolete by, oh, say, Christmas, 2008. The salesman probably made no hint to your well-meaning girlfriend that there is a winner-takes-all format war going on between HD-DVD (backed by Toshiba and Microsoft) and Blu-Ray (backed by Sony). Or maybe the buyer knew but figured it would be years before one technology proved the victor. After all, the Betamax player hung on for a string of Christmases before being pronounced dead in the late ‘80s. The good money would have suggested that HD-DVD and Blu-ray could compete side-by-side for years.
Alas, not so. That’s because Warner Bros., the movie studio behind Harry Potter, the sci-fi classic Blade Runner (a collector’s edition is on the new release schedule) and the high-def version of the remarkable BBC series Planet Earth, jumped sides last week to Blu-ray, saying that from May it will only produce new releases in the Sony-branded format, signalling an early end to HD-DVD.
The Warner Bros. decision “strengthens Blu-ray’s hand considerably”, says Jim Bottoms, co-managing director of digital media consultancy Understanding & Solutions. If the Toshiba camp is to survive it will need to convince its remaining studio partners to continue supporting HD-DVD and hope to pull back to its side reluctant studios. The chances of this are bleak. As The Times reports, one of the remaining hold-out supporters of HD-DVD, Paramount, is also considering a jump to Sony.
With the about-face, Warner now joins the Sony, Fox, Lionsgate and Disney studios as exclusive adopters of Blu-Ray. In the U.S. market, the world’s biggest, the Warner switch means 75 per cent of all upcoming high-definition releases will be exclusively in the Blu-ray format, Understanding & Solutions calculate, all but sinking HD-DVD’s chances.
“We should see an end to the format war within the year,” Bottoms declares.
There’s no denying that consumer electronics format wars are a nuisance. The rules of engagement are particularly cruel for the buying public, asking them to make an expensive bet on a technology that could be obsolete in a few years time. They emerge with remarkable frequency: 78 rpm discs versus 45 rpm in the 1940s, 8-track versus cassette in the 70s, Betamax versus VHS in the 80s, digital audio tape versus the compact disc in the 90s. Not to mention, of course, the ongoing QuickTime versus Windows Media versus RealMedia struggle.
The Blu-ray versus HD-DVD tussle is particularly perverse. While the retail price continues to fall, high-definition players – which pack a sharper picture quality and cinema-like sound – will set you back, at a bare minimum, between £150 and £250 for the most basic machine, and hundreds more for a more kitted-out player. The average price of a high-definition optical disc, meanwhile, is around £25, a healthy premium over DVD prices. An aggressive format war would, in theory, push prices of both discs and players down as both camps try to win over a loyal base.
But if the format war is hastily called off you can forget about a price reprieve. With just one horse in the race you arrive at a scenario that is just as bad as a nasty format war: collusionary pricing. If the studios decide to back just one format – in this case, Blu-ray – a vital price stimulus will be removed from the market. Studios need to recoup development costs for the new technology and so will price their optical discs much higher than ordinary DVDs until that initial investment begins to pay itself off. In this very likely scenario, expect high-def discs to be priced well above £20 for the near term. Only when consumers begin to protest by defiantly plodding along with the same old DVD players will we see the next generation disc and player prices begin to fall.
But for those of you now staring incredulously at your HD-DVD player, it’s too late. You’ve been drawn into this turf war under false pretences, thinking that on Christmas morning your flashy new player would be able to play all the Hollywood blockbusters on your wall-sized, high-definition flat-screen TV. Take heart: a new technology will emerge in the next few years. You won’t make the same mistake twice. Choose wisely.
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Bernhard Warner, a freelance journalist and media consultant, writes about technology, the internet and media industries. He can be reached at techscribe@gmail.com
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why does there have to be a so called war. have both formats continue in their own right. each has merits that the other does not. but each produce stunning results. there does not have to be a clear winner. i use both as i own a toshiba hd-dvd and a ps3.
Lg has it right, bring out a duel format player so the customer can buy both. after all it is not about the formats at all for us the buyers its about the quality and the content. and from what i have seen quality is equal. so please quit throwing your toys out of your cot and just get on with it an release good movies with top extras.
Dave , hants,
Sure, initially lots of $499 and $399 PS3's were sold to the top of economic scale part of society, and sure maybe they each bought a few Blu-Ray discs to test the new system, so initial sales were high.
But for the remaining 239 million people or so in USA, lower price HD-DVD players is a better choice, at $99 to $149.00 maybe then they can save the rest of their money to finally afford an HD TV to use it with.
Lower prices will always sell more, plain and simple, go back to economics class if you don't agree.
Free market competition is what we the consumers stand for. Let the masses decide, not the early adaptors.
Having said that, Iâve never come across the bad business ethics that is going on in this so called Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war. In the past, consumers were always the ones that decided when they were no longer interested in buying a particular product or technology.
The news media and the HD media manufacturers never took sides. I think the news media can take a lot of blame for this format war. I think they were the ones to call it a war.
I think Sony was the one to start exclusives with the studios and then Toshiba followed, to better and/or equal their market share.
Letâs face it; majority of consumers donât really care about the technical aspects of the HD Player technology. They are only interested in a basic movie playing machine with a good acceptable quality picture, and most will just use their basic TVâs internal system for sound. So why all this fuss about the format technologies. As for picture and sound, both format are basically the same.
rod, Brampton, CANADA
Stone, N-O-B-O-D-Y cares is the format is "finished" or not, yet you know you made a dishonest comment. Hint: even if we assume what you said is true: what is wrong with an evolving format?
Warner Bros did us all a favor and the only mistake here is yours: supporting Microsoft and HD-DVD. Hey, it's your money, waste it where you please.
Arnold, New York, New York, USA
Warner Bros made a big mistake moving to Blu-ray.
it is an unfinished format. Recently they announced version blu-ray vers. 1.2 which requires a TCP/IP port(which HD-DVD has had from the start) to enable extra features. This effectivly rendered every standalone Blu-ray player obsolete, including most that are for sale today.
Imagine the hit to consumer confidence when someone buys a $500+ player only to find it it is obsolete before they open the box.
Good Job Sony.....
Stone Danzigger, Charlotte, NC
I see no reason why both formats can't survive! If the studios want to make ALL the money, they should just offer it in both formats, or better yet a combo disc..... How cool would that be?
What do you think is going to happen if Blu-Ray is the ONLY choice?
Craig Thompson, Fairbanks, Alaska
Both have relatively the same quality, and are now utilizing the same codecs (VC-1 and Mpeg-2) as well. The price edge is definitely with HD-DVD but mass adoption of Blu should see this balanced out.
As for the porn industry - apparently a couple of major names have followed suit with Warned, and are now either exclusive or are also publishing on BD.
Like someone else said, I'm just glad for one technology to dominate. I do have a 60gb PS3 but was thinking of getting a toshiba hd-dvd player as there're some fabulous discounts, plus the DVD upscaling works great.
Parikshat, Boston,
To John in Marina,
Keep on supporting HD-DVD. You and all your little swap meet buddies can trade HD DVDs that you've seen 30 times already because there aren't any new ones.
Kevin, Victoria, BC
Tony from London, the Xbox 360 has a tonne of games but most of them are the same as PC games because the architecture is so similar. I don't see the point of getting a Xbox when I can play all of the games on my PC eventually anyway. Don't tell me that Halo 3 is not coming to the PC just like Gears of War and Halo 1 & 2 have. The only difference is I can play them on a better graphics card on my PC.
When Sony on the otherhand have exclusives they are genuinely exclusives, innovative and well worth playing. The 3 good games is pure fanboy talk which was probably true in the beginning - but seriously you need to get with it, because my problem now is I simply don't have enough money to buy all the PS3 games I want to play.
And going back to the issue in hand - the PS3 has given me a built in HD device, for no additional cost. Actually it is THE HD device that will become the default standard because Blu-ray winning the format war is now inevitable unless you are completely naive.
Mike, Hong Kong, China
'I plumped for a PS3...I have a great games machine' LOL. There's oh, almost three good games out for it!
Tony, London, England
It's upsetting that WB went to Blu Ray, HD-DVD is cheaper to make, has better video quality (using VC-1, BD still uses MPEG2 I believe) and the players are cheaper. Do people think BD will be better...let's look at the long run, Sony will want a piece of every player sold, every disc sold. BD will not be cheap and is backed by Sony. I'm not a fan of Sony after the whole rootkit scandle. I am proud to continue to support HD-DVD and if I am on the wrong side, it only hurts consumers to have BD be the next HD disc.
John, Marina, CA, CA, USA
I have readthat the Porn Industry which, by far, sells the most DVD material relies heavily on HD-DVD and not Blu Ray - this factor was not mentioned in your article and I do not think it was taken into account when you claimed that 75% of material will now be released on Blu Ray ...
Ray, Montreal,
Your article seems to imply that someone that purchased or was given a HD DVD player now has a useless machine. HD DVD players haven't stopped working, and a HD DVD film collection won't evaporate into mist, because of the Warner Brothers decision. Also you must remember that HD DVD players are also excellent upscaler of DVD discs, of which the Toshiba players are very good at.
Whether Blu Ray or HD DVD "wins" it is unlikely that either would have achieved the mass adoption of DVD, and it seems very likely that they will end up a niche market like LaserDisc, DVD Audio and SACD's. DVD will be around for a very long time.
Philip Alexander, London, UK, Essex
I'm OK, I plumped for a PS3. If HD-DVD won then at least I'd still have a great games machine. But then who would have bet against Blu-Ray when it was in every PS3? After all, PS2 helped DVD enormously....
Pete Smith, Stansted,
Sony may call it blu-ray, but I say 'blurry'. The next generation of players should achieve some quality, so it will pay to wait a bit longer. Certainly a total waste of money to pay £25 for a movie disc that is already obsolete.
Tim C, Southern England, United Kingdom