THE Conservative Party will be plunged into a full scale leadership election tonight if, as expected, a vote of confidence ends Iain Duncan Smith’s tormented two-year reign as leader.

The party will have a new leader by Christmas if the final pleas of Mr Duncan Smith to be allowed to stay on — the latest in an article in The Times this morning — fail.

The confidence vote was was demanded by at least 25 Tory MPs, as is required by party rules.

In The Times, Mr Duncan Smith appeals to be allowed longer in the job. He writes that he is “halfway to Downing Street. . . now is not the time to turn back”.

He warns MPs not to opt for a “self-indulgent leadership contest”, admits that he has made mistakes and vows to develop as a leader. He tells MPs not to “kid themselves” that the electorate will not punish the Tories for their feuding.

He is facing the first formal confidence vote in Tory history. If he loses, it will be the fourth leadership contest in eight years.

Mr Duncan Smith will address his MPs in Committee Rooom 14 of the Commons at 2.30pm today. Then they will decide whether to vote him out of office. The result will be announced at around 7pm.

Last night it appeared that his final exhortations would be in vain as MPs admitted that they were likely to desert him to end the party’s misery.

Plans are already in hand for a lightning contest to replace him. Nominations are expected to close at lunchtime tomorrow and the first two ballots of MPs will be next Tuesday and Thursday.

Michael Howard is the favourite among senior MPs to succeed, with David Davis a close second. Others likely to run are Michael Ancram and Tim Yeo.

At a hastily summoned meeting of his Shadow Cabinet yesterday afternoon, Mr Duncan Smith told his most senior colleagues that he was not looking for blind loyalty.

In what they regarded as a dignified statement, he said that they were “all individuals for the next 24 hours” and must do whatever they thought was right. He would appreciate their support but he was not just asking them to “tick a box”.

Mr Duncan Smith announced his intention to fight on at 2.30pm, four hours after being informed that at least 25 MPs had put their names forward. Mr Duncan Smith made the short trip from his Commons office to that of Sir Michael Spicer, chairman of the 1922 Committee, to whom MPs sent their letters, to be given the news.

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