KEN LIVINGSTONE??S congestion charge has become a victim of its own success with so many cars being discouraged from the roads there is now a shortfall in revenue.
New data to be published on February 17, the first anniversary of the levy, will reveal that weekday congestion levels in the central London charging zone have fallen by almost a third. While this has speeded up journey times, the large drop in cars ?? about 50,000 a day ?? has meant that revenue is much lower than expected.
It had initially been predicted the congestion charge would create a surplus of ??200m in its first year to fund other key transport projects in the capital. But it has earned only ??68m ?? a problem compounded by the difficulties in enforcing penalties on those who fail to pay the ??5 fee.
The Sunday Times has found that more than 1,600 motorists a day escape fines because Capita, the private firm that runs the scheme, has too few resources to pursue every offender.
Nevertheless, Livingstone??s bold experiment has been viewed as a success in government circles. Officials from the Department for Transport have been telling councils in other towns and cities, such as Newcastle upon Tyne, that they should consider congestion charging as a possible means of tackling high traffic levels.
Durham already charges motorists to enter parts of its historic town centre and Edinburgh is set to be the next big British city to introduce congestion charging. Residents are likely to hold a referendum on the issue by next January.
Bristol, Leeds and Cardiff have also expressed an interest, while Nottingham is expected to become the first place in Britain to introduce a workplace parking levy to deter commuters from using cars.
In London, Livingstone has proposed a westward expansion of the charge zone to cover the whole of Westminster as well as Kensington and Chelsea.
??Congestion is down more than 30% in the zone and journey times on central London roads are 10% faster,?? said the London mayor this weekend. He conceded, however, there have been difficulties.
The number of motor vehicles entering central London during charging hours has fallen by 16%, according to the latest available figures. Although car numbers have been cut by 30% ?? 13% more than the minimum prediction ?? buses and taxis, which don??t pay charges, have increased by 15% and 20% respectively.
Each day about 108,000 motorists pay the charge, while 8,000 penalty notices are sent out. However, because of a shortage of resources at Capita, this is only 83% of those who fail to pay the fee ?? the remaining 17%, or 1,639 drivers, are not pursued.
Transport for London (TfL), the mayor??s transport agency, argues that most motorists entering the zone do so repeatedly during the week and that someone who tries to evade payment on five occasions will be hit with at least four fines.
It also points out that under a renegotiated contract, Capita, which has been offered an extra ??31m on top of its initial ??250m deal, has been ordered to improve its ??hit rate?? from 83% to 97% by mid-March. But that will still result in almost 300 motorists being able to get away without paying the charge each day.
??These people are the really dangerous motorists who also drive around without insurance and road tax and who TfL and the police should be following up,?? said Edmund King, executive director of the RAC Foundation. Of those motorists who are being pursued for non-payment, 6,000 are serial offenders who have tried to evade the charge at least three times.
However, up to 18% of recent penalty notices have been contested and TfL is having to back down in at least half of these cases. Mishaps include a woman from Northampton who has never driven to London receiving 22 penalty notices. It is thought that her numberplate had been ??cloned?? by a driver intent on evading the charge.
TfL originally estimated that the charge would raise ??200m for other transport projects but that fell to ??120m when the scheme started last February. They now believe it will raise about ??68m in its first 12 months. Revenue levels are expected to rise to between ??80m and ??100m in the second year, but TfL has already been forced to delay investment in extra carriages on the Docklands Light Railway.
The jury is also out on the impact of the charge on businesses. Last year, the John Lewis Partnership claimed sales had fallen at its flagship Oxford Street store as a result of the levy and a survey by the London Chamber of Commerce found that a quarter of firms had been forced to lay off staff.
Although 4,000 fewer people are now coming into the charge zone, Livingstone claims the levy has brought a net benefit to the capital??s economy of ??50m due to shorter journey times.
Steve Norris, the Tory mayoral candidate, has pledged to scrap it. ??It is regressive, it is expensive, it has been ruinous to business, it applies to only eight square miles of London and the proof of the pudding is that no city will replicate this type of scheme,?? he said.
However, Andrew Burns, transport leader at Edinburgh city council, which hopes to launch its scheme in 2006, said: ??We have been hugely encouraged by what has happened in London. The debate about whether congestion charging reduces congestion is over.??
