HOWZAT

"On the period up to 1998 we draw four main conclusions – first of effective work carried out by IAEA and UNSCOM, which was however not complete because of inability to account for all Iraq's previously estimated stocks.

"Secondly, a progressive reduction in JIC estimates of Iraq's capabilities up to 1994/95. Thirdly, following the defection of Saddam Hussein's son-in-law, Hussein Kamil, which prompted Iraqi declarations of programmes previously concealed, growing suspicions between 1995 and 1998 of what Iraq might be continuing to conceal. And fourthly more assured JIC assessments of Iraq's nuclear capabilities than of its chemical and biological capabilities. The latter are, of course, easier to conceal.

"In the period 1998-2002, the weapons inspectors were no longer in Iraq and intelligence sources were sparse, particularly on Iraq's chemical and biological weapons programmes. Following the inspectors' departure, some of

"Iraq's suspected remaining facilities were attacked through the bombing operation, Desert Fox. The policy was one of containment of Saddam, against a background of continuing suspicion and fears on the part of the Government that the international will to retain sanctions was weakening.

"There was limited intelligence suggesting Iraqi attempts to expand its missile programme, to lay the foundations of a revived nuclear programme, and to develop facilities which could be used for chemical and biological programmes. In the background, there was the well-established history of Iraq's weapons programmes from well before the first Gulf war and their use in action both against Iran and Iraq's own people. More immediately, there was growing intelligence and consequent concern about proliferation in other countries as well, for example the expanding information about the extent of the AQ Khan network. This led to fears of what one witness called a "creeping tide" of proliferation.

Pre-war reassessment of policy

"Then 9/11 happened, followed by coalition action in Afghanistan, President Bush's axis of evil speech, and growing evidence of United States focus on Iraq. This led to reassessment of the British Government's policy towards Iraq in early 2002 and to the conclusion that stronger action (not necessarily military action) needed to be taken to enforce Iraqi disarmament.

"This conclusion was not based on any new development in the intelligence picture on Iraq. At that stage there was no recent intelligence that by itself would have given rise to a conclusion that Iraq was of more immediate concern than the activities of some other countries.

"The British Government, as well as being influenced by the concerns of the US Government, saw a need for immediate action on Iraq because of the wider historical and international context, especially Iraq's perceived continuing challenge to the authority of the United Nations. The breach of UN Resolutions also provided a basis for action but, if it were to take the form of offensive military action, it was recognised, first, that the United Nations Security Council would need to be convinced that Iraq was in breach of its obligations; second, that such proof would need to be incontrovertible and of large-scale activity; and, third, that the intelligence then available was insufficiently robust to meet that criterion. This was in March 2002.

The dossier

"During the spring and summer of 2002, further intelligence came in and the tone of JIC judgments became firmer but successive JIC assessments warned that intelligence remained limited, particularly on Iraq's chemical and biological weapons programmes.

"A dossier began to be prepared, first covering four countries of concern and then concentrating solely on Iraq. Other issues occupying the intelligence agencies, the JIC and the Departments during this period included terrorism, the activities of the AQ Khan network and the tension between India and Pakistan.

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