THE retailers had been predicting a lacklustre December. But a last-minute crush in the shops this weekend looks set to cap a sales rally big enough to reverse the expected slowdown.

A report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasts that spending this month will hit £24 billion, 8% up on last year. This is despite an 11% fall in the number of shoppers in streets and malls this month.

The combination of a clear weekend’s shopping immediately before Christmas Day, early sales in some stores and consumers hanging on for late bargains is expected to result in a crescendo of jangling tills in the first two hours after the shops open this morning.

That is when the numbers cramming supermarkets, high streets and shopping centres are expected to hit 13m, the highest of any hour in the year and nearly 3m more than a typical Saturday afternoon.

Crowding will be increased today by the Sunday trading laws, which restrict opening hours.

In a move that has angered some churchmen, big chains including Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Waitrose are to stretch the six available hours by giving shoppers at least half an hour’s “browsing time” before the tills open. They will also get 30 minutes’ grace to pay up after closing time.

“It is going to be a real frenzy,” said Tim Denison, director of SPSL, a retail analyst. “The first couple of hours are likely to be the most intense period of shopping in the year, particularly on food and booze. Those first couple of hours could determine whether a retailer has a successful Christmas or not.”

The biggest spend of the year was expected to come on yesterday’s longer trading day, when Barclays forecast £2.5 billion in till receipts.

About 200,000 shoppers crowded into the Bullring shopping centre in Birmingham, where the car park was overflowing by 10.30am. There were no more parking spaces at the Metro Centre in Gateshead by 11am.

Oxford Street in London appeared to be bucking the trend — it was quieter than a normal Saturday at lunchtime yesterday. Only about 10 shoppers were browsing in the John Lewis toy department but Debenhams was busier.

Elsewhere, for many seasonal items, shoppers are holding out before they buy in the hope of getting late bargains.

“Consumers and retailers are playing a game of ‘chicken’ with consumers holding out for discounts and retailers resisting cutting prices in the expectation that eventually customers will have to buy their presents,” said Thushani Gajasinghe, an economist at the CEBR.

The bargain hunters will be joined by shoppers who had planned to buy presents over the internet but left it too late. According to online retailers, there has been a 150% rise on last year in sales of pre-wrapped gifts such as flowers, chocolates and iPods.

Another group of shoppers out today is those attracted to stores that have begun their post-Christmas sales early.

These include clothing stores Benetton, Gap and French Connection and shoe shop LK Bennett.

Marks & Spencer will launch its sale online on Christmas Day and in shops on Wednesday.

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