The Met Office predicts that this year will be the hottest on record. Forecasters are 60 per cent confident that the combined effects of El Niño, greenhouse gases and cyclical changes in solar activity will push up global temperatures.

A spokesman for the Met Office said that 2007 is “likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998”. He added that the Met Office was unsure how Britain would fare, but last year was the hottest since records began in 1659.

The worldwide temperature is expected to be 0.54C above the 14C average for the period 1961-1990. Global temperature predictions made by the Met Office over the past seven years have been out by 0.06C on average.

The potential of another hot British summer makes water companies more cautious about lifting the hosepipe bans affecting 15 million homes, despite full reservoirs and rising groundwater levels after recent torrential rain. Eight water companies in southern England imposed restrictions on water use last year, including three that were granted temporary drought orders.

Rainfall since September has been above-average and far above the levels of 2004 and 2005 that led to shortages in the summer. Plenty more may fall, with the Met Office forecasting average, or above- average, levels until the end of next month when a cold, dry period could set in. Reservoirs are now full, or close to full, and underground water levels, where much of the nation’s supplies are found, are filling up. But because groundwater levels were so low by the end of summer even more rain is still needed for supplies to be fully replenished.

Terry Marsh, of the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, which monitors water levels, said: “The drought may be considered to have terminated in terms of rainfall. The outlook is very much better and is certainly healthier than this time last year.” Nevertheless, he said it could be two years before all the groundwater levels were back to normal.

A spokesman for Thames Water said: “We are getting there but we’re not completely out of the woods yet. We are getting to the point where it’s a strong possibility we will lift our hosepipe ban.”

Last year Thames Water sent 4,000 letters to households reported for breaching the ban; Southern Water posted 1,342 and Three Valleys Water 2,255. No one was taken to court.

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