The number of train passengers having to stand will double by 2014, with the crush delaying services, unless the Government funds a major increase in capacity, the Office of Rail Regulation said yesterday.

It added that the existing network will be unable to cope with the increase in demand and conditions will become so bad that many people will give up travelling by train.

The network carried more than 1.1 billion passengers last year — the highest number since 1946, when it was twice as large.

The regulator published its estimates for how much Network Rail will need simply to maintain the existing network between 2009 and 2014. It calculated the amount as up to £21.6 billion, only £1.7 billion less than it has been awarded for the five years from 2004.

The Government wants to cut rail subsidy by more than £1 billion a year from 2009, which would mean that all the available public money would go into propping up the network. There would be nothing left to increase capacity.

The regulator said that Network Rail had estimated the number of people standing on trains in the morning peak in London and the South East would grow from 70,000 to 130,000 by 2014 without new capacity. Peak fares would rise well above inflation as train companies tried to force passengers to travel at less busy times.

Delays would increase and scheduled journey times would lengthen because it would take longer for passengers to get on and off overcrowded trains.

The regulator’s quarterly National Rail Review stated: “If long-term growth trends are to be accommodated in reasonable comfort, the capacity of the most congested parts of the network will need to be increased.” It said that a passenger survey showed that satisfaction with the space available fell last year, dropping most steeply on Virgin Cross Country and Virgin West Coast.

Bill Emery, the regulator’s chief executive, questioned whether all journeys were really necessary and said that road pricing might result in a reduction in the number of people travelling.

He added: “The key challenge to the rail industry over the next few years will be to cope with the rapidly increasing demand for passenger and freight services.”

If only 1 per cent of car drivers switched to trains, rail passenger numbers would grow by 10 per cent.The regulator calculated that enhancements to the most overcrowded lines would cost between £550 million and £730 million a year.

The Government is due to announce in July how much it plans to spend on the railways up to 2014 and how much extra capacity it is willing to fund.

A dozen major enhancements, including the Thameslink upgrade and remodelling of Birmingham New Street, have been delayed by several years because ministers have refused to grant them funding.

Michael Lee, the regulator’s director of performance, said that the first priority should be to extend trains on the busiest routes to 12 carriages because that would not require major investment in lines. The regulator criticised Network Rail for allowing delays caused by infrastructure failure to rise compared with this time last year.

Overall train punctuality is at the highest level since 1999, with 88 per cent of trains on time. But recent improvements have been entirely due to better performance by train companies, not Network Rail.

The company’s worst result was on the Great Western Main Line between London, Bristol and Cardiff, where punctuality has “fallen back badly since December”.

Chris Grayling, the Shadow Transport Secretary, said: “Simply telling people to consider whether their journey is ‘necessary’ isn’t good enough. “Commuters need to able to rely on the rail network to get to and from work, to visit friends and family, and go about their business.”

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