IT HAD all been going swimmingly. The middle-class girl from the shires had won the heart of her prince and was set to be the perfect future queen by dint of her dignity, poise and healthy uncomplicated manner.

The Queen’s closest confidantes certainly saw possibilities in Kate Middleton. Royal insiders say they were lining up Middleton and Prince William to take over the Queen’s heavy burden of engagements in her later years.

“The Queen could see the prospect of some kind of semi-retirement ahead while she believed Kate and William were going to tie the knot,” one confidante said yesterday.

There seemed to be no obstacles. As Christopher Wilson, the royal biographer, told The Sunday Times three months ago, it was not a question of if the couple would get engaged but when. “They have been in a long, serious relationship for four years and and they are in effect man and wife already. It’s a done deal,” he said.

Where did it all go wrong? Was it that William could not commit, or was Middleton put off by the media intrusion, or did their recent separation give her a glimpse of a dreary future in which he would never be there or had either of them found a new relationship?

As the news of the couple’s split was broken yesterday, there were no end of experts willing to prosecute each theory. It should not, however, be too much of a surprise. What we do know about the recent history of royal relationships is that publicly they may be smiles and fairy tales, but privately they are often fraught.

The pair met at St Andrews University in 2001 where they were both studying history of art, although William later switched to geography.

Kate, the daughter of entrepreneur parents who set up a successful business, grew up in a privileged background and attended Marlborough College where she excelled at sport.

At St Andrews the two quickly became friends and chose to rent a house together along with two other students in their second year. The prince spent £200 for a front seat at a charity student fashion show in which Middleton strolled down the catwalk wearing a see-through lace dress.

Rumours surfaced that the flatmates were romantically linked, but the first confirmation was when they were pictured on the slopes of Klosters, the Swiss ski resort, in March 2004.

It was not all peachy romance. At a polo match in 2004 the couple were spotted having a furious row in William’s VW Golf. Rumours circulated that they had agreed a trial separation ahead of their exams and William was reported to be feeling “claustrophobic”.

William was later to say: “I’m only 22, for God’s sake. I am too young to marry at my age. I don’t want to get married until I’m at least 28 or maybe 30.”

The couple were back together for their joint graduation ceremony in June 2005. But still doubts persisted. William had a meeting with the Queen and the Duke of Edinburgh at which he expressed his wish to delay marriage. The duke is said to have told him: “Don’t wait that bloody long. We don’t want another Charles and Diana.”

For the royals it was a road-testing of a new type of relationship. The couple were allowed to cohabit at William’s cottage on the Balmoral estate, something that would not have been possible for his father.

Kate was keen to pursue her own career and joined Jigsaw, the fashion chain, as an accessories buyer. In December she watched William graduate as an army officer at Sandhurst.

It was the first time she had been at a high-profile public event attended by the monarch and senior royals and it intensified speculation about the engagement. But her life was becoming increasingly difficult as gangs of photographers camped outside her home. This may have added to the tensions in the relationship.

It was Easter weekend that William told the Queen that his relationship was over.

Friends say that the couple had grown distant after William began army training in Dorset. “They are lucky to see each other once a week,” said one. “When he does get a night off it appears to Kate that Willliam would rather spend time drinking with his new-found army pals.”

One Eton contemporary had a more simple explanation: “William likes the ladies. The reality is he has never been a one-woman man. He’s only 24 and likes playing around a bit. It was all getting a bit much for him.”

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