David Cracknell and Isabel Oakeshott
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TONY BLAIR is to endorse Gordon Brown as his successor as prime minister after he officially announces next week his intention to resign.
The prime minister, who will fire the starting gun on the leadership race on May 9 or 10, made his decision in the past few days after David Miliband made clear he would not be challenging Brown for the premiership.
Blair will support Brown, his long-time friend and foe, even if Charles Clarke or John Reid decides to embark on a “kamikaze” mission to prevent the chancellor having a smooth coronation. Brown will face a challenge anyway from a left-wing MP, either Michael Meacher or John McDonnell.
“If David Miliband had stood it would have led to a real dilemma for Tony,” said a Downing Street insider. “Miliband standing aside has made it easy for Tony to endorse Gordon. He will do that now, but couldn’t have done if David had stood.”
Blair has been encouraged by Brown’s open support for his six policy reviews, which the prime minister set in motion last year to ensure that his reforming legacy would endure.
The prime minister will make his position clear when Brown officially launches his campaign, which is likely to be within a few days of Blair’s announcement of his timetable for leaving office. After a seven-week leadership and deputy leadership contest, Brown is set to take over in the first few days of July.
For several years Blair has refused to endorse Brown unequivocally, although he has hinted he would like to see the “big clunking fist” of the chancellor smash the Tories at the next general election.
This weekend Tessa Jowell, the culture minister and key Blairite, will publicly back Brown, although it has been widely believed that she will lose her job under the new regime.
However, just as Brown prepares to take over, some insiders who have spent time with him in the past fortnight report that he is “depressed” about his electoral prospects, particularly in the south of England and among middle-class voters. Blair recently tried to encourage him, but his help was not welcomed by Brown.
A YouGov poll published on Friday gave David Cameron’s Tories a 10-point lead over a Brown-led Labour government. In this week’s local council elections, Labour is expected to fall to its worst showing in local government for more than 50 years.
While the chancellor recognises that he is still popular in Scotland, he considers the corollary may be that he is “unpopular” in England.
He is also said to be worried about the impending publication of the Downing Street diaries of Alastair Campbell, Blair’s former communications director, even though they have been heavily edited so as not to cause trouble for Brown and Labour. Campbell was witness to many meetings between Blair and Brown, some of which ended acrimoniously.
“Gordon is possessed by thoughts that he must reinvent himself,” said one insider. “He has already tried to make himself more ‘human’ to the public but it does not appear to be working, if you look at the polls. Others are advising him just to be himself.”
In an ITV television interview today, the chancellor does not deny suggestions he has been damaged by the prime minister remaining in office for so long.
Blair’s wife Cherie is said to want her husband to continue in office until mid-July, when the school holidays begin. This would give Brown’s supporters just days to make an impact at Westminster before parliament shuts for the summer recess.
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While the chancellor recognises that he is still popular in Scotland. Em which Scotland is that then????
Raymond Moran, Highlands, Scotland
Who cares what Blair thinks? His arrogant procrastination and his pathetic attempts to make the world think he is still of some relevance are ruining his party. If he cared about anything other than his overweening conceit, he would have gone months ago. With a leader like him, the Labour party deserves to return to oblivion. Is there nobody at all in the Labour party who has the balls to tell him his number is up?
Lezli Taubler, London, UK
Blair may be unpopular because of his unconditional support on war on terror in alliance with US, but he should be credited for maintaining a harmonious relationship with US when other European Union members are raising a war car . The bilateral co-operation in trade and politics is mutually rewarding as the two nations are poised to gain a lot.
As a foreigner I don't have any idea of Blair's domestic image, but as an international leader I can say he has made England a key decision maker in important pressing issues all around the world.
S SAROJ KUMAR, Chennai, INDIA
To Craig, Glenrothes -
"There are many who should support Labour but they have bitten the hand that fed them".
Are you really saying that people should support a party for purely selfish reasons? We all know it happens, but it used to be thought disreputable. Have we really come down to the point where a whole profession can be bought - and is expected to be bought - by a pay rise?
Regardless of the party or the voters concerned, it is my hope that as many as possible will take a wider, more pricipled view on election day - on all sides, and in all parties.
Michael Bruce, Selby, Yorkshire
Blairs support could be likened to a kiss of death.
As far as Brown is concerned when the penny finally drops on middle britain that he is all take and no give his tenure in office will be notable only by its brevity.
philip, Ipswich,
Mr Brown demonstrated his dubious morals when he was a student - "take whatever you can" - and he hasn't changed any. He plundered taxpayer's pensions whilst voting to ensure his own remains safe (courtesy of Mr and Mrs taxpayer). He even robbed from the lowest paid in his last budget to boost his image to overall electorate. Once a selfish self-serving parasite, always a...
Duncan, Bristol,
So it's up to Cherie how long Blair stays in office, is it? I'm sure it has more to do with the party the Blairs are planning in June at Number 10 rathter than the "school holidays" as Cherie suggests. It would be embarrassing in the extreme if they had to rescind the invitations to the rich and famous or move the venue to ione of their Bristol flats. Wouldn't quite have the same feel, would it?
Caroline Kennedy, San Jose, Costa Rica
Upon his resignation in 1955, Churchill was heard to say of his successor, "I don't believe Anthony can do it." And so it was: Anthony Eden, long-time Foreign Secretary and perhaps the most experienced and seemingly capable minister in Churchill's cabinet was a flop as PM, lasting only from 1955 to 1957. It's going to go exactly the same way for Gordon Brown. His premiership will last at most two years before there is an election and the public give Labour the boot. There will be one difference, though - Eden at least called an election when he gained the premiership. Brown doesn't have the cajones to do that.
Jim, Boston, USA
God help us all if Gordon Brown becomes PM!!!
David Edwards, Manchester,
Your writers are excellent in expressing their views for the UK. Factual analysis through statistics is a full-fledged manner in which to test theories, though. It is the finalization of that. For example, if middle class is too heavily taxed, what is the range of middle class income; how many households are impacted by this (lower middle class only; lower middle and middle middle class). With theories tested, only then can they become totally factual. Mr. Blair is good at international analysis, but like President Bush, not refined in administration. ASK HIM TO IMPROVE.......
PLB, Norwich, CT USA
TONY BLAIR endorses Gordon Brown as his successor as prime minister. Gordon Brown will do any thing to become a Priminister, even carry on with horrible legacy of Tony Blair.
Munna, London, UK.
Tony Blair clearly has little choice now than supporting Gordon Brown, which I trust he will now do whole heartedly for the sake of a clean transfer of power. The Blair-Brown partnership has hardly been a disaster - you would hope that Brown publicly leads and represents us with more ideas of his own than an eye to posterity, perhaps.
David Cameron will yet need to find a style and substance of his own (I'm hoping what we've seen can be improved upon) - it's a potentially very long time until the next general election.
Andrew, Petersfield, Hampshire
MIKEL of Manchester is spot on!!
Who is going to vote for the Sherrif of Nottingham, unless it is all those thousands given pointless jobs under his tenure
Rob, Florida, USA
I shuddered on reading the last paragraph of this article: What does Cherie Blair have to do with anything? Is British politics really now so degenerate, undemocratic and dysfunctional that the timing of school holidays and the say-so of Mrs PM determine who runs the country?
That I am afraid is Blair's true legacy: to have undermined substantive politics, a concern with real issues, with a culture of mendacity, headline chasing, egocentrism and the aspiration to celebrity.
Andrew, London,
Too little, too late, I fear. Blair's time to go was around the New Year. Had he gone then he would not have tranished his party irreperably and made Brown unelectable. Scotland is lost so far as Labour are concerned and the old notion that you're stuck with Labour will be nailed for good on Thursday. Labour's years of being able to rely on their Scottish vote have gone for ever. Alex Salmond may not only have to negotiate with Brown as Prime Minister but, shortly, with David Cameron. Interesting times indeed!
Gregor Addison, Glasgow , Scotland
Really M Landau? Are we talking about the same Mr Brown here? The guy who keeps raising the taxes but doesn't seem to spend them on the most disadvantaged in our society?
starling, Lancaster,
"Blairs wife Cherie is said to want her husband to continue in office until mid-July, when the school holidays begin."
Never mid the Country's interests, Mrs Blair is obviously hoping to go directly from No 10 to her preferred holiday destination - with the kids.
Edwin Thornber, Bucharest, Romania
There are many who should support labour but they have bitten the hand that fed them. Nurses and Doctors have done well under labour with significant and well earned pay rises no doubt. They have went on, however, although there are now many more of them under labour, to slag the party at every turn. The media should examine the conciences of our angels and doctors rather than attack labour at every turn. Disingenuous and unloyal come immediately to mind.
Craig, Glenrothes,
Gordon Brown is much more of an idealistic "man of the people" than he is given credit for. Ultimately he will have enough time to make an impact when he does get to become PM and I really hope that he will show more support for the UK's domestic affairs than Tony Blair did. If it wasn't for Iraq, Blair would have had a much more triumphal end to his career because he has achieved a lot for the UK and history will show, but Iraq has oversahdowed all that. If Mr Brown concentrates on tackling immediate issues (like avoiding the collapse of the economy by rising inflation and interest rates caused by overzealous and greedy commodity markets, and the public incorrect perception of state of public services) then he will beat the Tories - and I hope he does. Mr Cameron has no substance and any government of his will destroy our Country.
Max, Manchester,
How can you tell the man is "depressed" - I have never seen him when he is not gloomy..
Robin, London,
I think that we should find ourselves incredibly lucky to have a man like Brown willing to lead us. Who else is immensely capable, genuinely cares for the most disadvantaged in our society and can reduce any member of the opposition to a state of terror? Let us thank Gd!!!!!!!!!!!!
M Landau, Londn, London
It is well known Westminster that Gordon Brown believes all wealth created in the economy is the rightful property of the state and we are lucky to be allowed to keep any of it.
Is it any wonder he is unpopular with people whose money he has stolen ?
Ubi, Edinburgh, UK
It is of little relevance whether Brown replaces Blair. It will be short lived as Labour will lose heavily at the polls next week and this will be the confirmation of the beginning of the End for New Labour. After defeat at the next election I imagine that Mr Milliband may seize the opportunity to become PM after the 2014 election. Just a thought.
dachaidh, RHU, Scotland
Mr Brown has damaged the middle class of this country and allowed the super rich to balloon the housing market making a mokery of savings and pensions
He stands no chance to last as PM and the NLabour sealed its fate deciding to back him
Michele, Richmond, Surrey
Gordon Brown is unpopular for many, many reasons. The most prominent in my mind is the way in which he has attacked the middle class of this country with his taxation polices. Yes, we all know we have to pay tax that is a given, but it is his relentless attacks on family wealth creation and wealth retention that hurt us the most. In my family's own case my Father and his brother came from a poor background and worked extremely hard through study and self determination to better themselves, yet upon death their estates had to hand over a considerable sum of money to the state . Until he takes a long and hard look at what he is doing to ordinary folk what with IHT and his pensions tax raid such sheer arrogance will never make this man a man of the people, let alone a PM whom we can trust.
MIKEL, Manchester, UK
I hope Mr. Brown does not get in Tony Blair's position, since he already showed his partners of politic engagment. Conservative way of thought is better than too much liberated, socialist.
Soussan Bathaee, Temecula, California/USA