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David Cameron would win a general election by 54 seats, based on voting patterns in last week’s local elections, according to a study published this weekend.
The study shows that the problems faced by Gordon Brown as he is poised finally to become prime minister are worse than first thought.
Labour took comfort last week from snap assessments suggesting that its vote held up, but the research shows that the party’s performance was weaker than initially believed in the south, while the Tories gained more ground in the north.
Thursday’s voting shares — 40% for the Conservatives and 26% for Labour — would be enough to give Cameron 352 Commons seats, 54 more than all other parties in a general election. The study is by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, directors of Plymouth University’s elections centre.
Figures by Rallings and Thrasher — two of the country’s leading experts whose vote-share model has accurately predicted recent election results — show Labour’s share of the vote, at 26%, remained at last year’s depressed levels, while the Tories, in gaining nearly 900 council seats, advanced from 39% to 40%.
It comes amid concern yesterday from Brown’s allies that a row over Scottish independence could derail the early months of his premiership. Tony Blair is to announce his resignation this week, and the chancellor is expected to take over as prime minister at the beginning of July.
MPs close to the chancellor acknowledged that the Scottish National party’s achievement in winning the largest number of seats at Holyrood was likely to lead to the “nightmare scenario” of friction over the Union dominating the early months of a Brown administration at a time when Blair’s successor wants to rebuild Labour’s dwindling support among the English middle-classes.
“Gordon being diverted by a running clash with Scotland may only serve to emphasise his own Scottishness and could be politically suicidal,” said one MP. While Brown’s allies say he recognises the risks, he believes the Union is too important an issue to set aside.
Blair will bring the curtain down on his 10-year reign this week, triggering the departure of several of his key allies from frontline politics. Because of the cash for honours scandal, he will abandon any plans for a big resignation “lavender list” to put his supporters into the House of Lords.
Brown intends to make a series of speeches in England and Scotland warning that separatism would amount to the “Balkanisation of Britain”.
Yesterday, Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, issued a series of radical demands to Brown, designed to bolster support for independence and threatening to stoke up tension with Westminster.
They include a greater share of North Sea oil revenues for Scotland, more funding to help set up a local income tax and a new levy on lorries carrying Trident nuclear warheads.
Sources close to the chancellor immediately hit back, accusing the SNP leader of “arrogance”. They insisted there would be “no truck” with deals to appease the nationalists. The chancellor’s allies hope that Labour can instead forge a deal with the Liberal Democrats and continue to rule Scotland in partnership with them.
“The SNP may not even be part of the ruling coalition,” said the source. “Given the circumstances of the election and the fact that a clear majority of Scots voted against the SNP, plans for independence should be binned.
“Alex Salmond is hardly in a position to be making demands on anyone. It is the height of arrogance for him to make such demands in this way.”
Sources close to Brown said he would not even contemplate meeting Salmond until the ruling coalition was finalised and the chancellor has taken over as prime minister.
The chancellor is close to Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, and may seek his help by asking him to bring pressure to bear on his party’s Scottish leader Nicol Stephen to rebuff SNP advances and form a
coalition with Labour. Brown is under intense pressure to make an immediate impact as new prime minister. Instead of spreading eye-catching announcements over his first 100 days, he is now said to be focusing on his “first 100 hours” in office.
Blair’s departure from No 10, to be announced officially on Thursday, is expected to mark the end of the careers of some of his longest-serving ministers and aides, who will retreat to make way for the chancellor.
Among those likely to go is Blair’s former flatmate, Lord Falconer, who is said to be ready to leave the cabinet when the prime minister departs.
John Prescott, the deputy prime minister, will also bow out of frontline politics, while Hilary Armstrong, Blair’s former chief whip, is said to be resigned to losing her place in cabinet.
A string of other leading Blairites were in full flight this weekend as they accepted the inevitability of the chancellor taking over the top job.
Downing Street sources have revealed that Charles Clarke, the former home secretary, abandoned his plans to challenge Brown for the leadership following intense pressure from leading Blairites, who persuaded him that the chancellor could not be beaten.
John Hutton, the work and pensions secretary and one of Brown’s fiercest critics, will demonstrate the seismic shift in power today when he publicly offers the chancellor his wholehearted support and calls on the Labour party to throw its weight behind the new leader.
John Reid, the home secretary, who considered challenging Brown for the premiership, will also hit the airwaves today to confirm finally that he will not challenge the chancellor for the top job.
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FAO Geoff from Swansea
Dont mess around in school and you wont be in the lower class will you??
also dont tax us to simply pay for people who cannot be bothered to further themselves.
Jon, Doe, Kent
Oh dear, what a large chip Geoff of Swansea has on his shoulder. How depressing to think that some little men are still waging the class war!
Britwillie, Hurstpierpoint,
If Brown and Campbell undermine the fact that Scotland voted for "Change" they will be seen to undermine the Scottich democratic process, ie interfering in Scottish politics. This is unacceptable and will surely push Scotland towards independence in 4 years time. Back off Brown unless you want to be responsible for mass unrest and demonstrations in Edinburgh. You have been warned!!!!
Braveheart, Glasgow, Scotland
It is interesting that Geoff, Swansea speaks about Mr Cameron being from "The right side of the tracks" in a way that seems to suggest that Labour would have a better understanding of knife carrying bullies and drugs than the Torries. However Blair went to an independant school and I doubt that he experienced knifes there. I think that this comment representes people who simply have a chip on their shoulder about people who have been fortunate enough (largley due to hard work of parents) to be able to afford independant school education. It is riddiculous to suggest that Cameron has only been able to reach his current position through status rather than ability. It seems as though more Labour supporters are more interested in hurting the rich rather than helping the poor.
Ruairi, Hitchin,
The only people benefiting from New Labour policies of the last ten years are the super rich earning six figure salaries. Both middle and working classes have been hit very hard with the highest stealth tax burden anywhere in the developed world and especially of any western european country. People are struggling with the ever higher increases in living costs.
A forty percent income tax on a £500,000+ salary is nothing compared to a person on a middle or breadline income. New Labour -the champions of the working classes at the expense of the middle class? We doubt it; both working and middle classes have been hit hardest, while the super rich have been getting richer through their support of this scandalous New Labour regime.
John, Eastbourne,
Is it not a good thing we discuss listen and learn north and south of this great country ? there are many good and worthy reasons to take stock and understand the UK has to change political landscape the same throughout Europe , read the news in eastern europe and Russia ! This is not the dark ages , surely a younger energetic well travelled population who read and take interest in our planet .
Allan, Aviemore, Scotland
Geoff from Swansea comments "Cameron and his cronies live in a different world to the vast majority of the people of the UK. They have never known what is is like to struggle to pay utilty bills, council tax or the basics" The same could be said for Tony Blair and those around him - they all live very well, courtesy of the British taxpayer. The Prime Minister has not set an example by living modestly, he has houses in Belgravia, sends his children to private schools and is set to earn millions relating what he did or did not do while being paid by the State. 'New' Labour seems to me no better than their predecessors.
David Cunard, Los Angeles, USA
Cameron next PM what wil change ? the waffle will be the same, Cameron is no more a conservative than Karl Marx or Robin Hoodie
E PRYOR, Gravesend, UK
weldone to the conservatives keep up the good work . unfortunate 2 losses in bye election probably down to fortnightly bin collection starting later this year.
thomas cooke, hastings, england
These results, sold by a Labour-rinsed BBC as a failure of DC to make a breakthrough only show that if he is cunning enough to make inroads into the North and some advances in Wales and Scotland as well as an alliance with the Ulster unionists, the Tories would be braced for a landslide come the next election. I sincerely hope that Scotland turns sour for "Big Brother" Brown and that the tories realize that by putting more effort where they are not currently present and firmly believing in their principles, victory is within their reach.
Victor Lomark, Chelmsford , Essex
"Roy Cobbett" said:
"the same old Tories, like the ones in my home town, red in tooth and claw, hungry for business as usual."
what does that actually mean? - that when they get in the PM will raise money by selling pearages, and get the country into an illegal war?
working early in the NO10 press office aren't we?
tom atkins, Chesham, Buckinghamshire
Do we really want a Tory party with the same old values running the country?
Cameron and his cronies live in a different world to the vast majority of the people of the UK. They have never known what is is like to struggle to pay utilty bills, council tax or the basics. Cameron and his elite few were born on the right side of the tracks being fed their mushed peas and apple sauce with a silver spoon. Then on to the top schools for the £1000 dinners. Do they know what it is like for a kid in a comprehensive today with the knife carrying bullies, drugs
and general lack of disciline and respect?
How can the British public contemplate people like Cameron leading this country when he can only possibly empathise with his own circle and the wealthy classes who will always put themselves first and to hell with the rest of us.
Do we really want this upper class toffee nosed oik in charge? He is a man in his position through money and birth not ability. Give me anyone but him.
Geoff, Swansea,
I sincerely hope that the study is proven to be wrong because Cameron is pure spin intended to get the old Troy guard back in. He is indeed a trojan horse and should not be given leadership of the country. I really hope middle england voters will see him for what he is. After all, if Blair in unpopular because of Iraq, why on earth would those misinformed voters put the concservatives back in power - they would have done exactly the same as Blair and would have supported USA in the Iraq invasion. It's so hypochritical to use Iraq as an excuse to vote Tory. If people really mean what they say, they should vote Lid Dem. But most of all I hope that Brown appeals to the traditional labour voter and shows that the party cares about society and stops the Cameron bandwagon.
Max, Manchester,
old Tories are still much better then New Labour
: )
Alex, London,
Um, why didnt you bother to print the Lib Dem share of the vote? No bias then?
F W, UK,
I also speak as a Conservative supporter, and i say i'm delighted Gordon will soon be leader, because he will guarantee DC's place at No.10 in the not too distant future.
Well done DC, keep up the good work!
David .H. Wright, Richmond,
"Ray Cobbett, Emsworth" said:
"same old Tories, like the ones in my home town, red in tooth and claw, hungry for business as usual."
-what does that mean exactly?
-that when the Torries get in the tories will sell off pearages and get into an illegal war?
the No 10 press office is up early this morning
tom atkins, Chesham, Buckinghamshire
Those who knock Cameron should take the trouble to learn a bit more about him. This is a man of rare talent. Perhaps some of his newer policy thinking may not be palatable to traditionalists but it is more likely to be right for the country than tired policies from a tried old guard. And, his views have a lot more chance of actually being put into effect!
David Williams, Bedford,
What ever your views on Blair (he did win three times remember) Brown is seen as a dour Scot, its not that most (in England) dislike Scots, it more a sense of unfairness over issues of OAP care fee's, university fee's and so on. If the SNP further the Scottish "package" then English voter will turn on Brown, if Brown stands up to further Scottish demands then, the Scots will turn on Brown. Brown has left a slow fuse burning in is tax bomb shell, once white van man wakes up to the £3000.00 personal tax charge he will incur by using his van for his own use( just one of many examples of past/foward tax annoucements) few will forgive him in 2010, after this weeks results i doubt he has the "b***s to call a snap election, a torid time to come for Brown i suspect
philip jowett, swadlincote, uk
I'm for Cameron! Anything has to be better than what passes for Government under the present administration.
Richard Marriott, Kidderminster, England
Cameron is a Trojan Horse for wooing Times and Guardian readers into a comfort zone with professional PR. Behind him it's the same old Tories, like the ones in my home town, red in tooth and claw, hungry for business as usual.
Please can we move off Scotland. Two-thirds of the people who live there just voted to keep the Union. Salmond is a single issue Cheekie Chap and no match for Brown.
Ray Cobbett, Emsworth, England
The election is three years away,analyst from Plymouth Univercity are basing findings on a low turnout at local elections.The UK electorate are fickle and will change parties on a promise.This election was a anti Blair vote.What happens when Cameron does decide one day to cut out the SPIN and PR branding and present some policies then the situation can change. As Wilson once said "a week is a long time in politics"
bill rees, pieusse, france
I speak as a conservative supporter and would never dream of supporting Labour old or new. The only disaster worse than Blair or Brown would be Cameron.
Terence Roels, Codicote,
"Yesterday, Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, issued a series of radical demands to Brown, designed to bolster support for independence and threatening to stoke up tension with Westminster.
They include a greater share of North Sea oil revenues for Scotland, more funding to help set up a local income tax and a new levy on lorries carrying Trident nuclear warheads."
He did no such thing!!
Ailein, Berlin,
"Ladies & Gentlemen, the first lifeboat will shortly be leaving the Titanic... however we would like to reiterate that the ship is in abolsutely no danger of sinking."
Marc, Singapore,