Michael Smith
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BRITISH commanders in Iraq have drawn up plans to allow Gordon Brown to withdraw almost all UK troops by the end of the year.
The British commander in southern Iraq, Major-General Jonathan Shaw, produced a “commander’s tactical advice” several weeks ago, senior defence sources said last night. The advice was written for Lieutenant-General Nick Houghton, the chief of joint operations, in London after the Ministry of Defence asked for options that could be presented to Brown when he takes over as prime minister.
Brown is due to fly to Iraq to be briefed by Shaw and other commanders on when Britain’s 5,500 troops should be pulled out of Iraq.
Shaw’s “tactical advice” was endorsed by the most senior British officer in Iraq, Lieutenant-General Graeme Lamb, who is deputy coalition commander and based in Baghdad. The advice referred to UK success in training the Iraq security forces in the south of the country, but is also understood to have highlighted the danger of staying in Basra for too long.
British troops are due to pull back from two bases to one in the city and have been under constant siege from insurgents’ mortar and rocket fire.
Shaw’s advice suggested leaving a number of small training teams in the south to advise the Iraqi military forces but withdrawing the rest of the British troops by the end of December.
The sources emphasised that while the advice had been endorsed by Lamb, it had yet to win the backing of Houghton and had not gone to ministers.
“It won’t happen unless ministers say it is okay but in the circumstances it is impossible to see politicians going against the advice of two of the most experienced operational officers in the British Army,” one senior source said. Both Shaw and Lamb are former SAS officers and have been in charge of special forces during the war on terror.
The advice is expected to win the backing of General Sir Richard Dannatt, the chief of the general staff, who made clear last October that he believed his men should get out “some time soon because our presence exacerbates the security problems”.
Sources close to Des Browne, the defence secretary, insisted that while options had been passed to Houghton, there was no change to British policy in Iraq. This describes withdrawal as being “conditions based” and dependent on Iraqi troops being able to take control. Ministers have consistently refused to give any timetables for withdrawal
But in a freedom of information request released 10 days ago, the MoD said the Iraqi 10th Division, which is taking over from British troops in four provinces, has five brigades. Three of those brigades have already taken over in Dhi Qar, Maysan and Muthanna provinces. The remaining two are responsible for Basra and should have it under their control by the end of the year.
Withdrawal from Iraq would be far from easy. A large number of armoured vehicles would have to be moved to the port of Um Qasr or Kuwait. Other equipment might have to be destroyed or handed to the Iraqi army.
“There are several contingency plans about exactly how British troops will get out,” one defence source said. “Whatever way we use it will be ugly.”
Read Mick Smith's defence blog at www.timesonline.co.uk/micksmith
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Murph, do you still have to say the obvious? Haven't they said that they have completed training the Iraqi army ? With the exception, perhaps, of not highlighting the fact that they overlooked to train defending themselves against the Iranians, so much so that 15 of them had to become buddies and play balls with the Iranians at the beautiful Iraqi beaches until being sent home after 15days with the Iranian courtesies !! A likely story !!!
Goostee Arai, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia
Murph, do you still have to highlight the obvious ? They said their mission of training the Iraqi army has been completed. Albeit, in their haste, they forgot to mention that they have overlooked to teach how to defend themselves against the Iranians; so much so that 15 of them had to become buddies and play balls with the Iranians in the Iraqi beaches until they came home with the courtesy of the Iranians. A very likely story !!!
Goostee Arai, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia
It is biased to say British troops "have been under constant siege from insurgents mortar and rocket fire" A much more accurate word is "harassment". The insurgent's want to make life difficult for the British troops., but they cannot mount a serious attack or stop British patrols through Basra.
Davidp, Melbourne,
I am in agreement with Andy, his strategic insight is good. However, constant ranting about how Iraq was a better place before the Anglo Americans turned up is rather unjustified. It is very easy to maintain law and order under fear, which is what Saddams rule was. There were plenty of potential problems in a country which should be cut up like the balkans if anyone had any sense. If Saddam hadn't been such a brutal dictactor, he too wouldn't have been able to rule Iraq. So peace mongeres, whats it going to be, draconian peace or egalitarian war? What a choice when people should be able to just get along.
Alex , Montreal, Canada
As if the decision to attack Iraq on basis of non existent reasons wasn't wrong enough, this plan comes at a time when Iraq is in grip of violent sectarian and terrorist clashes. Someone has said "Two wrongs can never make a right, but they definitely make a pretty excuse". Britain seems hell bent to follow this path.
Under US and British occupation the law and order situation in Iraq has gone from bad to worse as evidenced from the reports from there. and planning to draw out at such a time would lead to another afghanistan debacle for sure. So the forces should stay in Iraq (as penitence) till security and order is restored.
Shikshamann, Chandigarh,
This has been the plan for some time. Its nothing new. However, it is only now being communicated in an open manner as Blair prepares to leave and Brown warms up for office. A pull out couldn't have happened under Blair.. Doing so would have exposed his rationale for being there thus far as BS.. Also, Bush wouldn't have let him ;) As for the US - they're not going to be following you out any time soon if they can help it... You don't start building a 104 acre 435m Euro embassy in a country you plan to abandon.. Look at the US bases in Germany and South Korea... Iraq is another area of huge geo-strategic import, not to mention the oil. One thing is nearly certain.. Retreat will be messy along the single supply line to either Um Qasr or Kuwait.. It'll be IED / RPG alley down there as the resistance give one last push.. Also the Americans will have to replace the British in the south and cover their retreat in order to protect their freshly exposed ONLY supply route..Great planning guys!
Andy, Dublin,
Withdraw US troops by December 2007. The time has come to acknowledge our mistake. Rather than spending billions on a failed policy we need a Manhatten type project to find a substitute for crude oil so that if the volatile area in the Middle East implodes as I expect it will, we won't be immobilized by the lack of crude oil
Charles W. Crone, Mt. Olive, USA NC
Excellent news! Withdrawal is long overdue and our brave British soldiers have become mere target practice for insurgents who criss-cross the Iraq/Iran border at will. If we have gone by Christmas this will be the first feather in Gordon Brown's cap. I have no doubt the Americans will not be long behind us as they too have had enough. What next? Probably a Turkish incursion into the Kurdish statelet to get access to oil and the PKK which will be a test as to whether Iraq can get its act together to defend its territorial integrity. If it can't, then it's curtains for a state which came into existence in the first place on the back of one of Winston Churchill's cigar boxes. Yes, the price of oil will go through the roof and there will be a new balance of power in the Middle East but those who bore the brunt of the
problem - the US and the UK - will have peace for a generation. The rest of Europe, including my adopted country Greece, may not fare so well in the new domino scenario.
Dr David Green, Athens, Greece
"Other equipment might have to be destroyed or handed to the Iraqi army"....this sounds like cut and run to me. Surely the British Army can make a more graceful and dignified exit than by torching or abandoning equipment. What those statements suggest to me is....the area isn't secure...you don't trust the Iraqis you've trained....and you just want out!!
One question though. If you leave the training teams that were mentioned. What happens to them if it all hits the proverbial fan in their area? Wheres their support...reinforcements..superior firepower going to come from? Shouldn't you leave at least an armoured regiment behind to cover this eventuality? I'm sure air support could be called on from us, and would be gladly provided. My fear is with the typical bureaucratic inter -coalition chain of command, communications, and fog of war, could leave these teams hanging. Theres a saying here..far away water doesn't put out nearby fires.
Murph, Madionville, USA/KY
Now you know why the Brits chose Basra; memories of Dunkerque. Someone else will have keep the only land escape route open now, or US withdrawal will resemble Custer's Last Stand.
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Nagano
The very sad thing about Iraq is that the USA and the UK will have to pull out soon and there is going to be a blood bath whenever this happens. Politicians hate saying they were wrong but in this case they were - cut the losses now and get out as it will make no difference to the certain blood bath that is coming. At least it will save British and American lives.
brian, Singapore,