BRITISH commanders in Iraq have drawn up plans to allow Gordon Brown to withdraw almost all UK troops by the end of the year.

The British commander in southern Iraq, Major-General Jonathan Shaw, produced a “commander’s tactical advice” several weeks ago, senior defence sources said last night. The advice was written for Lieutenant-General Nick Houghton, the chief of joint operations, in London after the Ministry of Defence asked for options that could be presented to Brown when he takes over as prime minister.

Brown is due to fly to Iraq to be briefed by Shaw and other commanders on when Britain’s 5,500 troops should be pulled out of Iraq.

Shaw’s “tactical advice” was endorsed by the most senior British officer in Iraq, Lieutenant-General Graeme Lamb, who is deputy coalition commander and based in Baghdad. The advice referred to UK success in training the Iraq security forces in the south of the country, but is also understood to have highlighted the danger of staying in Basra for too long.

British troops are due to pull back from two bases to one in the city and have been under constant siege from insurgents’ mortar and rocket fire.

Shaw’s advice suggested leaving a number of small training teams in the south to advise the Iraqi military forces but withdrawing the rest of the British troops by the end of December.

The sources emphasised that while the advice had been endorsed by Lamb, it had yet to win the backing of Houghton and had not gone to ministers.

“It won’t happen unless ministers say it is okay but in the circumstances it is impossible to see politicians going against the advice of two of the most experienced operational officers in the British Army,” one senior source said. Both Shaw and Lamb are former SAS officers and have been in charge of special forces during the war on terror.

The advice is expected to win the backing of General Sir Richard Dannatt, the chief of the general staff, who made clear last October that he believed his men should get out “some time soon because our presence exacerbates the security problems”.

Sources close to Des Browne, the defence secretary, insisted that while options had been passed to Houghton, there was no change to British policy in Iraq. This describes withdrawal as being “conditions based” and dependent on Iraqi troops being able to take control. Ministers have consistently refused to give any timetables for withdrawal

But in a freedom of information request released 10 days ago, the MoD said the Iraqi 10th Division, which is taking over from British troops in four provinces, has five brigades. Three of those brigades have already taken over in Dhi Qar, Maysan and Muthanna provinces. The remaining two are responsible for Basra and should have it under their control by the end of the year.

Withdrawal from Iraq would be far from easy. A large number of armoured vehicles would have to be moved to the port of Um Qasr or Kuwait. Other equipment might have to be destroyed or handed to the Iraqi army.

“There are several contingency plans about exactly how British troops will get out,” one defence source said. “Whatever way we use it will be ugly.”

Read Mick Smith's defence blog at www.timesonline.co.uk/micksmith

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