Mark Henderson, Science Editor
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The “patio gas” bomb defused in Haymarket would have generated a fireball the size of a house and a shock wave spreading out over a diameter of at least 400 yards, explosives experts said today.
The propane cylinders and petrol used in the device would have triggered a huge conflagration, as well as causing shrapnel and blast injuries from the exploding car chassis and the nails packed around the bomb, according to Hans Michels, Professor of Safety Engineering at Imperial College, London.
Just one 13kg propane canister — the type sold by Calor under the brand name “Patio Gas” — would release a highly flammable cloud of vapour that would spread over an area of 50 to 60 cubic metres before igniting into a still larger fireball, he said.
“The vapour cloud from one cylinder would fill the order of a big room, and when it ignited the effect would be even bigger,” Professor Michels said. “In addition to the power of the explosion and the shrapnel, you would get a fireball the size of a small house.”
As several propane or butane cylinders were recovered, the volume of the fireball would have been greater still, though it is impossible to calculate the size without knowing how much gas would have been involved.
Professor Michels, who has been an expert witness in explosives trials, said that although the police did not say whether high explosives were found in the car, another charge would probably have been used to ignite the petrol and gas.
An initiator such as triacetone triperoxide or TATP could have been used to detonate a main charge, such as the flour and hydrogen peroxide mixture allegedly used in the failed attacks of July 21, 2005. This would have blown up the car, scattering nails and shrapnel, as well as igniting the petrol and puncturing the gas cylinders.
The gas-fuelled fireball would have followed, though the timing of ignition would have affected the ultimate extent of the blast. It is possible that the petrol was intended as the main charge, but if so this would have resulted in a smaller explosion than if high explosive had been used.
The original explosion would have had to be large to penetrate the propane canisters, which are designed to withstand high-speed traffic accidents and fires.
Professor Michels said: “It is almost certain that the explosive device itself would have been sufficiently powerful not to just fragment the gas cylinders, but to destroy the car and possibly the front of buildings, with missiles, shrapnel, nails and burning petrol flung at very high velocity in the wake of the shock wave and the whole surrounded by a massive fireball resulting from the instantly evaporated and exploded propane and/or butane.
“It is also likely that the source of ignition and the explosive that should have set off the device was of the home made type, consisting of household materials now most commonly used by terrorists.”
Other experts suggested that the total blast could have been bigger still, depending on how many propane cylinders ignited and on whether high explosive was also used.
Andy Oppenheimer, editor of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical International, said the blast radius could have been anything from 200 years to half a mile. “It would have been a devastating explosion,” he said.
“With that amount of petrol and an unknown quantity of pressurised gas, the blast would have been about 200 yards. If high explosive was involved, the blast could have reached half a mile.
“Hundreds of people could have been injured if they had been in the area at the time. The knock-on effects of breaking glass are particularly devastating, for example.
“This would have been an explosion on the scale of those seen in the Middle East, although not as big as some that have been seen in Baghdad recently.”
The recovery of the intact bomb will also help forensic scientists to trace the bomb-makers, Professor Michels said. Propane cylinders carry a serial number which can be used to find the point of sale, and isotopic analysis could be used to trace any flour used in the main explosive charge.
Propane cylinders contain liquified propane, a volatile hydrocarbon, which would rapidly be transformed into a gas occupying 200 to 400 times the volume when released. This would mix with between 15 and 20 times that volume of air to produce an inflammable vapour cloud.
Brian Baker, director of the Association For Petroleum And Explosives Administration, said: “Propane is liquefied petroleum gas and patio heater gas is usually 97 per cent propane. Cylinders of this type of gas are readily available to the public and can be bought in places such as petrol stations and iron monger in particular.
“Propane is heavier than air when released, highly flammable and easy to ignite. When released in to the atmosphere and only a small amount is a required to cause an explosive condition and this is worse in a confined space when subject to an ignition source. Its explosive properties mean that 10 litres of the gas is equivalent to 2770 litres of flammable gas and air mix. There are controls on using this type of gas and this is why the industry gives lots of safety advice about use.”
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What amazes me is how many people are willing to put this incident at the doors of Bush and Blair as a means to inspire even more terror and fear. How dumb can you be? There have been terror attacks by Islamists against Western targets for almost 40 years now! Hijackings, bombings, beheadings, not to mention 9/11 and 7/7, unless you're willing to lay those all off as government conspiracies too. How much evidence do you need to see for you to realize that the enemy ain't us?
JohnnyT, Nashua NH, USA
It's high time people woke up to the fact that maniacs like this (along with criminals) represent far more of a threat to our society than a few extra police powers. I'd happily give away a few liberties if it meant terrorists being more sucessfully locked up or deported.
Luke Nicolaides, London,
Someone tried to blow up a nightclub and potentially kill hundreds of people. Professional or not, they had clear intent and every effort should be made to catch those concerned and put them away. If the guilty party is affiliated to any extremist group then we need to demonstrate unity of voice in condemning their actions.
Raphael, London, UK
Sounds more like a drink-drive hiker to me. If the police look carefully they'll probably find on the back seat a pair of walking boots, a thermos flask containing lukewarm coffee and a half-eaten bar of Kendal Mint Cake.
Gavin Smith, London,
"Al Thingy kills and maims loads of young fun seeking Londoners. Grown-ups flock to mosques to sign up for Islam. "
I don't think so. Other than sow the seeds of their own destruction, what could they possibly achieve?
Quijote, Marbella,
Everyone is quick to blame Islamic nuts, but as with the Oklahoma City bombing here in USA it doesn't hurt to wait and see. The best part is that if it turns out not to be a Muslim all the talk of religion and ethnicity just goes away. No idea of course but I would suspect drunken angry bar patron. I am Irish so we like to always think everything bad is the work of a drunk.
Tom, Boston, USA
Your expert omits the most lethal ingredient: tolerance
philip, London,
I know the internet is full of this kind of information, but is it really necessary for the Times to contribute to the dissemination of 'how to make a bomb' type information? Just because others do it, doesn't mean you shouldn't show some restraint and common sense.
Alison, London,
It is still too early in the story and there are not enough details released. I read a lot of "It could have been...." statements in this story. Noone with first hand knowledge. One point made is that propane cylinders are made to be extremely resilient. So far there has been no confirmation of a timer, trigger, or initiating charge. If there was no device to aerosolize the petrol there will be no huge fireball or shockwave, merely a flammable liquid. Let's all keep our heads this may still be nothing more than somebody being stupid.
Chip Vokey RN, Dallas, United States/ Texas
The two men who defused the bomb deserve our praise and appropriate commendations.
Mike Beckett, Acharavi, Corfu, Greece
It may be highly opportune for an early part time (normal working hours only) implementation of the Mayor's planned pedestriansation with busses and taxis, emergency vehicles and police allowed access within the central London area.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see this both common sense and 'best practice' where already implemented.
Nicholas Xenakis, The Borough, London, England
If the gas tanks were to be opened with high explosive why was petrol found? I suggest that it was an amateur job (note the erratic driving into bins) and that the explosion was to be caused by igniting the petrol and thus overheating the tanks.
William Garrett, Harrow,
Nobody has said Muslim terrorists are professional.
murph, Blackheath, UK
We should all exercise a healthy scepticism regarding the story of the car-bomb just found in London.
There are powerful reasons for this.
The grant of an appeal to the Libyan convicted of the Lockerbie bombing. There is powerful evidence that key evidence in his trial was tampered with or manufactured by the CIA. The U.S. wanted this matter off its plate, the families of the dead being a constant irritation. And who better to pin it on than the then much-disliked Libyans?
Actually, nothing is easier to fake than an amateur device like this. It takes little sophistication, and there is low risk of discovery.
The CIA has just released papers it terms the 'family jewels' which concern many dark matters from decades ago. While these papers are carefully selected to make the CIA look more ineffectual than it is and to give it a public-relations boost in light of its activities today, they still document a perfect willingness to engage in the most unethical behavior.
Mr. Brown has just taken office, and expectations are high that he will distance himself from Blair's foreign policy, a policy many thoughtful people regard as foolish, destructive, and rather servile.
In the United States, paranoid games have been regularly - such as terror alerts and ridiculous arrests -played concerning threats to keep fears fired up.
John Chuckman, Toronto, Canada
this article seems to speculate a lot on the basis of very little... why does our media jump into these games? why not be cool and collective as we Brits are supposed to be?
other experts have noted how the nails on the floor would have just been nailed to the ground and how the fireball would have not done much, even if the apparently clumsy device had managed to explode.
Peter Dixon, london, uk
Ye i think you would say that...
matthew, London, UK
Yes, you're right: it could be the work of some disgruntled footballer. (Wink, wink, nudge, nudge.)
ahem, NYC, USA
I don't think anybody is professional when it comes to setting off car bombs.
Still, you can be a professional in Chemistry and creating bombs but its a whole different field when you have to use bombs.
Callum Scott, Oxford, UK
Who knows: A suicide bomber on drugs driving erratically and crashing into litter bins? A narrow escape from an act of madness? Or is it thanks to LORD? HE putting some rattling litter bins into a young man's way to "paradise" .
Hopefully this guy listened to what LORD said. Maybe those who ran away came to a conclusion on their own: Not to kill innocent people.Since HE stopped Abraham from sacrifying his son in HIS name everyone knows that HE does not require innocent human beings to be sacrified in worshipping HIM. Right? If so - Those who ran away before committing a devastating crime may live in peace on and on.
Dirk R Bode, Hamburg, Germany,
A car being apparently driven erraticaly and then crashing into bins at 2 am near some night clubs doesn't strike me as the work of a professional.
Let's wait until the police investigate before we jump to conclusions.
Adam Khan, Londo, UK