Valerie Elliott and David Brown
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Shortly before 6am last Monday forecasters at the Met Office’s Exeter headquarters e-mailed the Environment Agency with the first warning that “a serious weather event” was likely to hit England on Friday.
With weeks of rain across the country leaving ground sodden and rivers at unseasonably high levels, whichever area bore the brunt of the storm brewing over the Atlantic was likely to face the most severe flooding.
By Wednesday morning the forecasters had narrowed down the expected location to the M4/M5 corridor in Gloucestershire and Worcestershire.
This morning thousands of families will still be cleaning up after the most devastating floods to hit the area for 60 years.
Meanwhile, millions of others are braced for the surge of water making its way downstream along the rivers Thames and Severn today.
Yesterday evening hundreds of people gathered at Gloucester Docks to watch helplessly as the dark brown swollen river rose at 1cm per hour closer to the top of its banks.
Earlier in the morning they had read Sunday newspaper reports of the destruction at towns and villages farther up the rivers Thames, Severn and Avon and their tributaries.
The River Leam had burst its banks in Leamington, much of Stratford-upon-Avon town centre was under water, hundreds of people in Birmingham had to flee their homes after two rivers burst their banks and 200 were rescued in Aston when the River Tame overflowed.
Within hours the water had risen to more than six feet above the river banks, leaving first-floor rooms and roofs as the only refuge. The RAF had begun its biggest peacetime rescue operations while RNLI lifeboats were also brought in to help to save hundreds of people trapped in their homes.
Rescue helicopters passed over tens of thousands of acres of flooded farm-land looking for isolated buildings where people had become trapped after the rivers burst. Kristine Long, from Welford-on-Avon, said: “We’ve had people airlifted by the RAF and the coastguard. I’ve got pictures of cars where it’s up to halfway up the windows. And it’s in people’s houses and everything. It’s awful.”
Hereford and Worcester Fire Service received more than 2,000 calls and rescued more than 750 people. Gloucestershire Police said that the force had attended more than 1,600 incidents in eight hours.
Andy Clift, the RNLI rapid response unit team leader, said: “I’ve never known anything like this – all our volunteers have been deeply affected by these extraordinary events.”
Thousands who escaped earlier, many with nothing except the clothes they were wearing, were to spend the following two nights in emergency refuges.
Darren Carr, 34, his wife, mother and three children, spent Saturday night at an emergency centre in Gloucester after their train was caught in the flooding. “We are tired, fed-up and we don’t know when we are going home,” he said. “Everyone here has been brilliant in the way they have looked after us but we just want our own beds and a shower now.”
As the flooding brought misery to many it became a source of entertainment for others, with thousands of tourists heading to the worst-hit areas.
“On Saturday we saw ice-cream and hot-dog vehicles pulled up alongside what we can only call ‘floods rubber-neckers’,” said a spokesman for the West Mercia rescue operation.
“Some are driving past clear flood warning signs and endangering themselves and their passengers – and possibly causing more work for overstretched emergency services.”
Emergency services in Gloucester were last night using sandbags to protect the Walham electricity substation. However, hundreds of homes in Tewkesbury, Gloucester and Evesham were already without power, raising fears of deserted homes being looted.
The likelihood of severe flooding had become increasingly obvious by the time Environment Agency experts were dispatched to join the Met Office forecasters at their headquarters on Thursday morning. A team of forecasters joined the agency’s key personnel at their main offices in Bristol.
However, there was little the officials could do. Rising water levels were monitored, but many towns that bore the brunt of the flooding on Friday and Saturday do not have flood defences. Even where the defences exist, it takes ten hours to put them up.
At Worcester, the Environment Agency decided that staff were best deployed checking river defences that would save thousands of households rather than spending hours assembling temporary defences which they believed would, at best, have protected some industrial premises and a handful of houses. In any event, the Environment Agency argued, the expected rainfall was so high that the defence systems would have broken up, leaving the metal poles and sheets that form the barricades to be swept by the current down the streets.
Even when it was decided to erect the emergency barriers it was too late. The barricades for Upton-on-Severn were stored 25 miles away in Kidderminster. The material was loaded on to a lorry and dispatched, only to be caught in the 10,000 vehicles trapped by floods on the M5 on Friday night.
Even those who escaped the floods are suffering. More than 350,000 people now face being left without drinking supplies.
Severn Trent Water said that homes in the north of Gloucestershire would be left without supplies for the next two days after a key pumping plant near Tewkesbury was overwhelmed by the floods. The company urged customers to conserve water, not run baths or hose down dirty areas.
Andy Smith, Severn Trent’s director of water services, said: “Even when we are able to restart the works, it will take some time for the network and water supplies to return to normal.” The company arranged for limited supplies to be delivered by bowsers or mini water-tankers usually seen at the time of drought – leading to panic buying.
As the floods began to subside last night in Worcestershire and northern Gloucestershire, towns and villages further downstream were braced for the worst.
Oxfordshire County Council gave a warning that it expected many residents would be forced to spend tonight in emergency shelters.
With almost 90,000 gallons heading down the River Thames every of second, the Environment Agency admitted that there was nothing they could do to slow down the torrent.
David Paddington, a strategic and development planning team leader for the Environment Agency, said: “It could be as bad as the floods of 1947 and will definitely be comparable to the floods of 2003 when more than 200 properties were flooded in Oxford.”
Overnight, the water was expected to hit Abingdon, Pangbourne and Purley. This morning Reading and Caversham will bear the brunt of the water, with Maidenhead, Windsor, Datchet, Wraysbury and Staines affected on Tuesday. Mr Bedlington said that all lock and weir gates on the whole stretch of the Thames had been opened to allow the water through.
“Apart from that, there is nothing else we can do. We have issued a flood warning for the whole of the River Thames,” he said.
“The water has to take its course through the Thames until it reaches the tidal section at Teddington Lock in London, where the problems should subside.”
Across the country
— A wedding party of 40 people had to be rescued from Badgeworth Church, near Staverton, in Gloucestershire.
— Brize Norton, Oxfordshire, had its wettest day on record on Friday – 126.2mm (4.97in) of rain fell. Its previous record of 70.9mm was in 1968. In Pershore, Worcestershire, 142.6mm fell.
— Performances at the Royal Shakespeare Company’s Swan Theatre in Stratford-upon-Avon were cancelled on Saturday because of flooding in the town.
— A pregnant woman who feared she had gone into labour while stranded on the M5 near Tewkesbury was rescued by paramedics after four-and-a-half hours. The woman, in her twenties and from Manchester, was later discharged from hospital after doctors said it was a false alarm.
— A care home in Herefordshire was being evacuated, the fire service said last night. About 40 elderly people were being taken from the flooded residential home in Hampton Bishop to a nearby school for shelter.
— Thirty narrowboats became stuck on the River Avon at Stratford after drinkers untied one, which then became trapped under a bridge and later sank.
— Susie Chatterley and her two dogs were winched to safety after a caravan park was badly flooded in Welford-on-Avon.
— Thousands of people were rescued from the Wakestock music festival in Pwllheli, North Wales, on Saturday after rain washed away the main walkway.
— RSPCA officers have helped to rescue farm animals, horses and pets caught in high water, including 200 cattle from a flooded field near Witham, Oxfordshire.
— The Red Cross helped to rescue 20 patients from Tewkesbury Hospital because of fears that wards would be overwhelmed.
— Nearly 30 people were trapped on the first floor of the Northwick Hotel in Evesham. Bacon sandwiches were ferried in by rescue boats.
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We British are so very precious! We love the refined arts, even gasp at the gathering of dubiously gallant and noble guys and gals. Yet we carry on regardless when poor people suffer.
Bernard Poole, Stone, Staffordshire
We see a lot of comment that the flooding is due to global warming and climate change. If you boat down the Thames, virtually all the lockkeepers cottages have gauges showing the heights previous floods have reached - and I think people will find some of these are far in excess of likely flood levels on this occasion. England has always been prone to bad flooding near rivers. What is perhaps more worrying has been the town centre flooding which isn't river related as this is related to the inadequacy of drainage systems which is down to govenment unwillingness to spend the money to correct this. After promises to do something about it by the politicians again this time, I doubt very much that there will be anything material happening in the future and exactly the same thing will happen again next time. With a pushto build more housing, which limits the opportunities for excess water to drain away, the next time - probably in 10 or 20 years or sooner - will be worse.
Lawrence, London,
I totally agree with Simon from Leeds comments and feel desperately sorry for everyone who has been affected with these major floods, where are our boys from the forces who could and would help us at home in times of desperate need. It seems ridiculous that weapons are made and used causing destruction and pollution to the maximum and our forces are fighting and unwanted war when our own country is experiences bizarre weather conditions and there just aren't enough trained professionals here to help those who need them. What is going wrong with our country?
julia, Derby, England
If this was happening in India or elsewhere the government would be rushing millions of pounds of aid out to assist. From what I see on news reports the government so far does not seem to being a lot for its own people. Gordon Brown flew over in a helicopter. Big deal!!!!
Liz, Spalding, Lincolnbshire
I sympathise with those families who have been flooded. However, the question that people living near rivers and on flood plains need to answer is 'How often am I willing to accept that my property will be flooded?'. If the answer is 'never', then I suggest that is totally unrealistic. Rivers are there for a reason - they are the country's drains. Occasionally, there will fall too much water for the drains to handle immediately without backing up at some points (for example at Tewksbury, where two rivers, the Severn and the Avon,meet). Any 'flood defence' must be limited to answering the question 'what is the limit that it is reasonable for a flood defence system to handle?' Is it a one in fifty year flood? A one in a hundred year flood? There will always appear an exceptional storm that breaks the historical sequence, because you can only go by the past up to a point. Sooner or later, a storm will occur that will overwhelm any 'reasonable' defence system.
T Richards, Oxford,
Brown's daft plan to build more on flood plains will rightly be laughed out of existence.
Any politician supoporting it will have no credibility.
In the meantime we await the surge in water coming down the Thames.
The Environment agency says flooding will reach 2003 levels- will it really be that bad?
Bob Douglas, Staines,
I noticed that unlike previous States of Emergency the Army is nowhere to be seen, we are reliant on Dept. of Environment, Fire Service, RNLI.,and the Coast Guard for the odd helicopter. Graphic proof that Politicians have led to our armed forces being so over stretched with foreign adventures we don't even have any T.A.units to spare for National Emergencies, time these Politicians got their priorities right. Defence of the Realm first.
Simon, Leeds, U.K.
Has anyone begun organising a collection for victims of this flooding? People do care what happens in these situations and want to help.
Kim Domick, Torquay, UK
Just as the 1947 Winter put paid to the dream of Nationalisation......?
Pete Balchin, Solicitor, Bristol, uk
So politicians complain about there not being proper flood defences? I thought they were in charge.....Your accompanying picture of the leader of Her Majesty's Opposition standing in some flood water grinning like a loon is a joy. Unless, of course, you are homeless.
john problem, london,
Since it looks like we now have monsoon tropical weather when are the councils going to install monsoon drains like they have abroad?
Joy Hodgson, Rawcliffe, East Yorkshire
Even when it was decided to erect the emergency barriers it was too late. The barricades for Upton-on-Severn were stored 25 miles away in Kidderminster. Clever, that!
Guy Shirra, Hong Kong, Hong Kong