Veterinary and animal health officials were increasingly optimistic last night that the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease was under control. They were so confident that it would be contained within the original 3km (two-mile) protection zone that they were able to advise the Prime Minister that it was unlikely to spread any farther.

Gordon Brown declared Britain “open for business” after the publication of an epidemiology report which concluded that any further outbreaks were most likely to occur no more than a short distance from the original infection. Mr Brown said: “We have restricted the disease to a limited area of this country. The risk of it spreading out of these areas is low, if not negligible.”

The national restrictions on movement of animals will remain in place until vets can be “absolutely sure”

that an extensive outbreak has been avoided. The protection and surveillance zones around infected areas will also remain in place.

The Prime Minister made his confident statement despite the decision to set up a fresh protection zone in Wotton, near Dorking, Surrey, several miles from the original outbreak at Normandy, near Guildford. Tests on livestock at the farm were being carried out yesterday after signs of sickness were detected, but the chances of it being foot-and-mouth disease were considered to be so low that an order to cull the animals was withheld.

Laurence Matthews, the farmer affected, said that he was “absolutely sure” that the disease was not on his farm but had decided to take no chances after he discovered flu-like symptoms among his 850 cattle.

Debby Reynolds, the Chief Veterinary Officer, said that the chances of the animals at Wotton being infected were low. She added that a report by the National Emergency Epidemiology Group concluded that while the emergence of other cases within the protection zone around Normandy were possible, the disease was unlikely to spread outside.

The report concurred with a study by the Health and Safety Executive this week in highlighting the research facility at Pirbright, Surrey, as the most likely source of the infection. The site is shared by the Institute

for Animal Health, the government-funded facility that is responsible for analysing foot-and-mouth samples, and Merial, a private firm that is licensed to produce the vaccine. Investigations were being made to pinpoint which of them was responsible for the release of the virus.

Dr Reynolds and the Prime Minister appealed for continued vigilance and thanked farmers for their response since the outbreak was detected last week. Laboratory tests revealed yesterday that more than 300 livestock from the third farm that was suspected to be infected were clear of the disease. Only two farms have been shown to contain it. Vaccination of livestock in areas that surround the infected sites remains an option but Dr Reynolds has so far decided that it is unnecessary. The Government has 300,000 doses available and trained staff would dispense the vaccine.

The Soil Association said that if the Wotton herd should prove to be infected, vaccinations should be deployed immediately. Patrick Holden, the director, said that vaccines had contained an outbreak in the Netherlands in eight days, whereas in 2001 “the UK, which did not use vaccination, took months to bring the disease under control,” he said.

The usually bustling Hunts Hill Farm was silent yesterday as John Emerson received the news that his livestock were free of foot-and-mouth disease. All of his 362 animals, 338 of them pigs, had already been culled as a precaution after the disease was detected in cattle at a nearby farm.

On Wednesday the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) decided that the Emersons’ livestock had suffered “dangerous contact” with cattle on John Gunner’s farm in Normandy, where the second case of foot-and-mouth was confirmed last week.

The news that his pigs never had the disease left him with “mixed feelings”. There was sadness for his animals and concern for the future of the farm but at the same time he recognised the disease had to be controlled.

Officials at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs decided this week that the ban on the movement of animals outside the protection and surveillance zones could be relaxed, allowing livestock to be taken to abattoirs and for dead animals to be removed from farms.

How the outbreak was contained

Thursday, August 2 Restrictions placed on Woolford Farm in Surrey after foot-and-mouth disease symptoms reported

Friday, August 3 Tests confirm virus among cattle at Normandy, Surrey. National ban on livestock movement and export ban imposed

Saturday, August 4 Strain of virus confirmed to be the same as the one used at Pirbright research facilities. Slaughter of cattle begins

Sunday, August 5 Health and Safety Executive (HSE) begins investigation at Pirbright

Monday, August 6 Cull of cattle begins at second farm at Normandy

Tuesday, August 7 HSE report concludes “strong probability” the virus was released, accidentally or deliberately, from one of the research laboratories at Pirbright

Wednesday, August 8 Relaxation of movement restrictions announced. Cull is ordered at third farm in Normandy

Thursday, August 9 Fourth suspect farm identified at Wotton, Surrey.

Friday, August 10 Fears of foot-and-mouth disease at Wootton eased

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