Britain has another mild winter in store although not nearly as warm as last year, the Met Office predicted today in a long-range, seasonal forecast.

The months of December, January and February are likely to be warmer than the average winter temperature of 3.7C that the UK experienced between 1971 and 2000.

It will however still feel cold compared to last year's average UK mean temperature of 5.6 C, the second warmest since climate records began in 1914.

The forecaster also said that there was a high probability that the three winter months would be drier than last year, which was exceptionally wet. Rainfall last year averaged 437mm, nearly a third higher than the 332mm that the UK is accustomed to.

The Met Office warned that the seasonal predictions were only probabilities, and that as they were being issued months ahead they were not necessarily reliable. Anyone hoping to plan a winter wedding around them would find themselves disappointed.

"Our seasonal forecasts indicate how particular seasonal conditions may be more likely than others," it said in a statement.

"The forecast is for the season as a whole, and is not able to forecast specific details about a particular day or location within the season."

Forecasts for winter were however more likely to be accurate than summer forecasts, and temperature forecasts were more reliable than rainfall predictions, it added.

Paul Simons, The Times's Weatherman, said that this winter would probably feel chilly and might bring snow.

"We've had such an amazing run of mild winters for the past 10 or so years, that anything near average will, inevitably, feel colder," he concluded.

"After all winter is supposed to be cold. But compared to winters of old, it will be much milder.

"The big mistake that a lot of people make with these forecasts is to read the word 'cold' and assume it will be howling Arctic blizzards.

"True, there may be snow, but overall not a lot, and there'll probably be plenty of mild spells."

He warned against taking the forecast too seriously. "Predicting anything months in advance is tremendously difficult," he said.

"This winter's rainfall prediction is so wishy-washy that it's hardly worth looking at. The Met Office are the first to admit that they find it extremely difficult to predict long-range rainfall, and have got previous season rainfall forecasts hopelessly wrong - for example, this summer.

"You might do better gazing at a crystal ball."

Temperature predictions were more likely to be accurate, however, thanks to the technique of measuring the pattern of temperature on the sea surface across the Atlantic in May, said Mr Simons.

"This gives a clue to a pattern of pressure systems across the North Atlantic, which has a big influence on our winter weather. In this particular forecast they have found a fairly balanced pattern of pressure for the coming winter, that suggests it will be neither very warm nor very cold."

Another - albeit weaker - predictor of winter weather from the Pacific, La Nina, had however suggested that temperatures at the start of winter would be very much the seasonal average, said Mr Simons, while the tail end of winter was milder.

Explore UK News

• Crime News

• Education News

• Health News

• Science News

• Scotland News

Times Recommends

• Donor organ allowed child’s own heart to heal
• Michael Jackson: Not the final chapter
• Brüno toned down for 15 rating