The Government has always been careful to avoid any suggestion that it is pursuing a timetable for reducing the number of British troops in Iraq.

Any cutbacks, successive Defence Secretaries have argued, would depend on conditions on the ground.

However, although the announcement by Gordon Brown in Baghdad that “1,000 troops” will be coming home by Christmas, reducing the military presence to 4,500, was made possible because of perceived improved conditions in southern Iraq, two other important factors have been driving the Government’s strategy.

Obviously, any announcement of troop cuts in Iraq will have positive political repercussions and the timing of Mr Brown’s statement is bound to be beneficial if the Prime Minister decides to go for a snap election.

The other factor is that General Sir Richard Dannatt, the head of the Army, has been saying for some time that he wants the commitment in Iraq significantly reduced to lighten the pressure on his troops and to free up key equipment, notably helicopters, which can then be sent to Afghanistan.

So, in a sense, there has been a timetable, coinciding with the phased transfer of security responsibility to the Iraqis in the provinces in the south. Three have already been handed over and the fourth and final one, Basra province, will be transferred within the next two months.

The key element of the “timetable” was the withdrawal a month ago of the last 500 British troops based in the centre of Basra city. This went ahead without incident, despite apocalyptic warnings of violence, making it easier for Mr Brown to contemplate a drawdown of troops over the next six months.

The announcement of a cut of 1,000 by Christmas is somewhat disingenuous, since it had already been decided that 500 would go by the end of the year, reducing the total presence to 5,000. Mr Brown has now added another 500, to make the total 4,500.

All the indications are that, provided security does not deteriorate in Basra province in the hands of the Iraqis, the Government will be able to reduce the British presence to about 3,000 in May to coincide with the next rotation of troops.

The role of the remaining 3,000, all based at the Basra air station outside the city, will continue to include training the Iraqi forces, supporting the work of the Iraqi border enforcement units along the frontier with Iran and being ready at short notice to assist the Iraqis in the event of a security emergency.

On this basis, British troops are likely to stay in Iraq for some years, but reducing in number over a phased period. The commitment will remain long-term, but the burden for the Army will become progressively lighter.

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