Michael Evans, Defence Editor of The Times
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The Government has always been careful to avoid any suggestion that it is pursuing a timetable for reducing the number of British troops in Iraq.
Any cutbacks, successive Defence Secretaries have argued, would depend on conditions on the ground.
However, although the announcement by Gordon Brown in Baghdad that “1,000 troops” will be coming home by Christmas, reducing the military presence to 4,500, was made possible because of perceived improved conditions in southern Iraq, two other important factors have been driving the Government’s strategy.
Obviously, any announcement of troop cuts in Iraq will have positive political repercussions and the timing of Mr Brown’s statement is bound to be beneficial if the Prime Minister decides to go for a snap election.
The other factor is that General Sir Richard Dannatt, the head of the Army, has been saying for some time that he wants the commitment in Iraq significantly reduced to lighten the pressure on his troops and to free up key equipment, notably helicopters, which can then be sent to Afghanistan.
So, in a sense, there has been a timetable, coinciding with the phased transfer of security responsibility to the Iraqis in the provinces in the south. Three have already been handed over and the fourth and final one, Basra province, will be transferred within the next two months.
The key element of the “timetable” was the withdrawal a month ago of the last 500 British troops based in the centre of Basra city. This went ahead without incident, despite apocalyptic warnings of violence, making it easier for Mr Brown to contemplate a drawdown of troops over the next six months.
The announcement of a cut of 1,000 by Christmas is somewhat disingenuous, since it had already been decided that 500 would go by the end of the year, reducing the total presence to 5,000. Mr Brown has now added another 500, to make the total 4,500.
All the indications are that, provided security does not deteriorate in Basra province in the hands of the Iraqis, the Government will be able to reduce the British presence to about 3,000 in May to coincide with the next rotation of troops.
The role of the remaining 3,000, all based at the Basra air station outside the city, will continue to include training the Iraqi forces, supporting the work of the Iraqi border enforcement units along the frontier with Iran and being ready at short notice to assist the Iraqis in the event of a security emergency.
On this basis, British troops are likely to stay in Iraq for some years, but reducing in number over a phased period. The commitment will remain long-term, but the burden for the Army will become progressively lighter.
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"out of Iraq, into Afghanistan"
This will be the most prudent action.
It is better to have minimum presence and move the troops to Kurd areas. Better to split Iraq into Shia, Sunni and Kurd independent nations. The US senate resolution is the right and first step!
In Afghanistan, the US, Britain and other allies will have to be merciless and ruthless and have to do carpet-bombing. They have to bomb heavily the Pakistan safe havens of Taleban and al Qaeda too. It is has to be a no-holds war. It will be a long drawn battle. Only under these circumstances, there are some chances of a win!
Regards,
Krishna R. Kumar, Udupi, India
I hope the Americans understand it is our only realistic option,
we only have 5 Armoured Brigades and 1 Marine and 1
Air-Assault Brigades. We had a strong Brigade group in Iraq
and a weak Brigade group in Afghanistan. Now we are
swapping this around, we are not abandoning our American
friends, we will still be in Iraq, but the biggest British military
committment must be in Afghanistan. Britain it must be said
is not weak in any way but thoroughly committed to the war on
terror and our Army is strong and brave as always, but
unfortunately too small.
Roderick, Hampshire, England
Sir,
Out of the frying pan...
SC, London, United Kingdom
i don,t know why people were worried about the the british army pulling out of iraq.
in fact i think there is nothing to worry about even if the americans pulled out today...you see the whole of this violence is about iran wanting to own/control iraq
and now that basra has been given to them on a silver plate it is only polite that they should thank the stupid
naiive politicians and summon jon snow to president,s palace in iran so that ahmadnezad can personally thank the british and ask for more of the same.
thank you
dedesertman, london, england
How very cynical Mr Brown..........................................
This government has so little respect for our wonderfull overstretched and underfunded warriors that the only baadge of honour they have to show for their dedication and sacrifice............their medals, which they should be proud to pass on as heirlooms to their children are now made of foil covered compressed cardboard. They are of such poor quality that many have to be returned to MOD for replacement before they are issued because the cardboard is showing through the foil covering.
How little respect this government really has for our brave boys and girls and their families!
John D Snow, Thetford, Englaand
I must say I was wrong. I really thought when the withdrawal took place all hell would break loose there.
I'm optomistic, but still can't be to overly as I recall that about the same time as the withdrawal the insurgents announced a 6 month truce. If I'm right that truce would be up in January about 1 month after the 1000 man pull out.
This leaves me wondering was one hell of a deal made? Or the deal made. Is the crap going to hit the proverbial fan there come January when Brit strength to react is at its minimum? Hmmm?
I do think its a good policy to move British airborne assets to Afghanistan. Hopefully this will cut down on possible friendly fire incidents thru less dependence on U.S. air power. I'm not knoocking us there..it just make sense to narrow the line of communication amongst the players to help prevent those incidents.
Good luck and God Bless all!
Murph, Madisonville, USA/KY
Gordon Brown is an unprincipled "serial re-announcer". Unprincipled in 1) announcing this to the media rather than Parliament as he previously promised 2) ignoring the valued and valuable established convention of not doing diversionary stories during the party conferences of the Opposition parties, and 3) contemplating an unnecessary election, less than 30 months after the last one, for no reason other than a perceived advantage in the polls (none of our 17 post-war general elections were unnecessary in this sense).
John Gentle, Birmingham,
March 2008 will mark the fifth anniversary of the military occupation of the former state of IRAQ. Now Iraq lies split into three self-controlled territories: Northern Kurdish Iraq; Iranian controlled Basra and the Baghdad area controlled by a predominately Shiite government; without Sunni participation. And America to stay there until the oil runs out around 2020. Whose oil is it anyway?
muggeridge, London, England
I feel so stupid. For a while there, a few weeks ago, I genuinely felt good about the world - with Blair gone forever and in his place someone who looked like he was going to stand up for out tattered democracy and put an end the rampant greed at the top.
Week by week this feeling has been eroded. If Brown calls an election so soon into his new job - apparently forgetting that we elect parties, not prime ministers - for the first time in my life i feel I may have to vote conservative.
It seems as if Brown needs to be taught a lesson about democracy - and nothing could drum that message home better than a reduced majority and the prospect of three lonely years as a failed prime minister. That is what he faces.
matthew, bristol,
Your story has missed the point. Brown's visit is a not-so-covert diversion op against the Conservative party.
michael Read, London,