Gordon Brown used a surprise visit to Iraq yesterday to announce the withdrawal of 1,000 British troops by Christmas, bringing the military presence down to 4,500.

David Cameron, the Tory Leader, welcomed the announcement but Liam Fox, Shadow Defence Secretary, attacked the Prime Minister for pursuing “photo opportunities” in Iraq.

“We all want to see our troops come home from Iraq, but only because the job has been done, not because the Army is too small to fulfil its commitments,” he told the Conservative Party conference in Blackpool.

Sir John Major, the former Tory Prime Minister, also attacked Mr Brown for making his announcement in Baghdad instead of to the House of Commons as he had promised.

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The announcement is somewhat disingenuous since it was already decided that half would be home by Christmas

Michael Evans

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Downing Street acknowledged that 500 of the 1,000-man cutback had been announced in June by Des Browne, the Defence Secretary.

The Prime Minister refused to comment on the suggestion that the troop withdrawal was linked to a decision on whether to hold a snap election. “The first thing on my mind is the security of the Armed Forces,” he said.

He is due to make a statement to the Commons on Monday, outlining the way forward for British troops in Iraq. He is expected to indicate further cuts next May – possibly the withdrawal of another 2,000 troops – provided that the security conditions are appropriate.

Yesterday’s announcement took even the Ministry of Defence by surprise. Downing Street officials denied that he had preempted his Commons statement. They said that it would instead focus on the longer-term strategy for Britain’s involvement.

The troop levels in southern Iraq will have dropped by 1,600 this year – from 7,100 in January to 4,500 by December. There are 5,250 British troops in Iraq, all based at the fortified Basra airbase outside the city.

Mr Brown was on his first visit to the Iraq since becoming Prime Minister. He wore body armour and helmet when landing and taking off at Baghdad airbase, as is required even for VIPs, but removed them before stepping on to the runway in a dark suit and blue tie at Basra airport later in the day to meet British troops.

The contrast between Britain’s short-term strategy for Iraq and America’s policy of maintaining a huge force to protect Iraqis from the continuing insurgency could not have been more stark.

The Government, while committed to Iraq politically, is seriously contemplating reducing the troop presence to the minimum possible by late spring, probably no more than 3,000, while the United States will still have about 140,000 troops there next summer.

The Christmas withdrawal will coincide with the handover of Basra province to the control of the Iraqi forces. Basra city was transferred to the Iraqis last month after the pullout of 500 troops remaining at the Basra Palace base, but security for the province as a whole is still under British control. Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, said that he would like to see the handover to Iraqi forces happen “as soon as possible”.

However, Iyad Allawi, a former Iraqi Prime Minister, claimed in an interview with The Timesthat fighting between rival Shia militias in the south, some backed by Iran, meant that Basra was on “the verge of explosion”.

In a snapshot of the unrest, the Basra police chief survived a third assassination attempt on Monday after a roadside bomb exploded near his car. In addition, the Basra council remains in crisis after a failed attempt to oust its governor.

However, General David Petraeus, the American commander of the multinational force, who met Mr Brown, said that the British withdrawal strategy was “quite doable”. A reduction to between 2,500 and 3,000 troops next year would enable service chiefs to reassess requirements for Afghanistan.

General Sir Richard Dannatt, the head of the Army, has given warning of the risk of overstretch if the two military campaigns were to continue at their current levels.

Mr Brown made his announcement after advice from Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, the Chief of the Defence Staff, General Dannatt and the other service chiefs.

Election countdown?

Last night
Arrived back from Iraq

Today
Meets ministers as David Cameron speaks in Blackpool

Tomorrow
— Monetary Policy Committee meets on its monthly decision on interest rates; a split is expected, but cut in rates possible
— Lord Darzi to publish interim report of health service review, designed to improve hospital care and access to GP surgeries in — England and Wales; publication brought forward by a fortnight

Friday
— Final decision on the London Crossrail project expected

Saturday/Sunday
— Discussions with ministers and advisers about an election. Friends expect him to make up his mind at the weekend

Monday
— Commons returns at 2.30pm with expected statement on Iraq
— Also Work and Pensions questions and the second reading of the Criminal Justice and Immigration Bill
— If election called, comprehensive spending review (outlining departmental budgets until 2011) and PreBudget Report will be announced on Monday or Tuesday

Tuesday
— If election is called, Parliament will be dissolved. If Brown does not call an election for November 1 on Monday, he may call one later in the week for November 8
— Look out for comprehensive spending review/pre-Budget report, a statement on Northern Rock, Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, PMQs and a Conservative debate on Europe on Wednesday

Source: Times database

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